Bayern Munich really should be in a much better position heading into their UEFA Champions League Round of 16 second leg. The German giants were two goals up against Juventus in Italy, but they threw that advantage away to give the Old Lady a glimmer hope. However, the Bavarians should still have the edge as the tie heads to the fortress that is Allianz Arena for the second leg.
Get a complete breakdown of this marquee Champions League matchup with our preview below. Meanwhile, don’t forget to check out our preview of Tuesday’s Manchester City vs. Dynamo Kiev showdown.
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Bayern Munich vs. Juventus Preview
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich, Germany
When: Wednesday, March 16, 2:45 PM ET
Line: Bayern Munich -275 vs. Juventus +595, tie +330; total 3.0 – view all UEFA Champions League lines
Betting on Bayern Munich
For the first hour or so, Bayern Munich just looked head and shoulders above Juventus. Despite starting without any of their recognized center backs, Bayern built up a commanding two-goal advantage through Thomas Muller and Arjen Robben. But Bayern’s defense eventually gave way as they could only come away with a 2-2 draw in the away leg.
For one, Bayern’s got those precious away goals, which means that a 0-0 or 1-1 draw will be enough to see them through. They’ve also got homefield advantage for the second leg, which has proven to be incredibly effective, especially in Europe.
Dating back to last season’s group stage, Bayern have won their last nine Champions League home games, scoring an amazing 36 goals and conceding just four. Only mighty Barcelona managed to score more than once in a match at the Allianz Arena during that time.
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Betting on Juventus
Juventus are made of some pretty solid stuff. Most other teams would’ve just folded after conceding twice against Bayern Munich, but the Italian champions came back strong to salvage a first leg draw.
Pablo Dybala, the team’s leading scorer this season with 14 goals, got the first leg comeback started with his first ever goal in the Champions League. Another big performance from him is crucial if Juve has any shot of breaking down Bayern’s defense in Germany. But as Juve showed in the first leg, Bayern’s makeshift defense can be exposed, particularly late in the game.
The equation is relatively simple for Juve: win and they’re in. (The Bianconeri are priced at +400 to move on to the quarterfinals.) That’s obviously much easier said than done, particularly since they have to stop Bayern’s outstanding offense. But if any defense in Europe can do it, it’s probably Juve’s.
Since the start of 2016, the Italians have conceded a grand total of three goals in 15 games in all competitions.
Writer’s Prediction
Bayern (-275) blow Juve away with a 3-1 home win.
