One more year. The wait for the Euro 2016 Championship in France continues, with 12 months to go before the official kick-off of the much-anticipated tournament. A lot could yet change in the time prior to the tournament, as qualifying is still just over halfway through after the recently concluded round of games.
Nevertheless, let’s take a very early look at the odds for the different favorite, sleeper and long shot European nations that could lift the Henri Delaunay Trophy in Paris.
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The three favorites for Euro 2016 have not exactly played up to their potential early in qualifying.
Reigning world champion Germany, the overall favorite at +350 to claim the Euros, suffered from a World Cup hangover early in qualifying and finds itself second in Group D behind neighbors Poland. Two-time defending European champion Spain, a +600 favorite to win an incredible third-straight title, is also three points back of Slovakia for top spot in Group C.
Meanwhile, hosts France hasn’t looked worth its +450 odds to prevail on home turf after suffering back-to-back losses to Belgium and Albania in recent international friendlies.
However, it’s certainly not time to panic, not by a long shot. The Germans will still host Poland in the next round of games. Spain will also have an upcoming home game against Slovakia. Victory for both teams would see them jump right back to the top of their respective groups. And the French don’t even have the added burden of having to qualify by virtue of being the hosts.
Simply put, these three teams should – barring any major injuries – have arguably the deepest and the best squads in Europe, which they will use to qualify with some ease. They’ve also got the benefit of time – a full 12 months, to be exact – to regroup and get back to top form before the tournament begins.
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Sleepers – England, Poland and Croatia
England’s back to its old tricks again. The kings of qualifying are currently undefeated at 6-0-0 to lead Group E by six clear points. They defeated their closest rivals, Switzerland, 2-0 away and will still host the Swiss at Wembley next September.
The English are suddenly playing like high-value sleepers at +1,200 to win their first major international tournament since the 1966 World Cup, but be warned: this is still England. Trust the Three Lions in a major tournament at your own peril.
Likewise, keep a close but cautious eye at Poland (+2,500) and Croatia (+6,500). Both Central European nations have been a welcome surprise early in qualifying, and currently lead their respective groups over giants Germany and Italy. Poland, in particular, has been lighting up the scoreboard with 20 goals, the most in qualifying thus far.
Barring a disastrous collapse in their last four games, both teams should find themselves fighting for the cup in France come the summer of 2016. And with game-changing, world-class talent like Robert Lewandowski (Poland) and Luka Modric (Croatia), each country also possesses the quality to be on the winning end of those battles.
Long Shots – Austria and Slovakia
A couple more unheralded nations are also making a lot of noise during qualifying. Austria has seized control of Group G, with favorites Sweden and Russia falling off the pace. Meanwhile, Group C-leading Slovakia is one of just two teams (the other being England) with a perfect 6-0-0 record still intact. The Slovaks famously dealt European champion Spain its first qualifying defeat in eight years.
Neither team possesses much recognizable top-class talent – David Alaba of Bayern Munich (Austria) and Marek Hamsik of Napoli (Slovakia) are the two biggest stars on either team. But they’re finding success through playing with the unity and effort that has made them greater than the sum of their parts.
For anyone looking for some significant long shots to go out and improbably win the tournament a la Greece in 2004, Austria at +15,000 and Slovakia at +20,000 are both very appealing options.
Writer’s Prediction
With Spain seemingly in decline and France under a lot of pressure to produce in front of its home crowd, Germany (+350) will come away victorious in Euro 2016.
