Wild-card weekend went chalk for the most part, with the Baltimore Ravens the only underdogs to make their way through to the next round. After a much-earned week off, the big boys now come out to play in the divisional round, but will that also spell some much harder falls from the top seeds?
Let’s preview all four of those games below and pinpoint some key matchups as we determine how each one plays out. For a more in-depth look at the round’s biggest games, check out our previews of the Ravens vs. Patriots and Cowboys vs. Packers.
[sc:Football ]2014 NFL Divisional Round Picks
Saturday, January 10
Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots (4:35 PM ET)
Writer’s Pick: Ravens (+7.5)
Everyone was ready to write the Ravens off because of their banged up secondary going up against a Steeler passing attack that was ranked No. 1 via DVOA. But the Ravens proved that any weakness in their secondary can be capably concealed by an outstanding pass rush, one that sacked Ben Roethlisberger five times.
[sc:NFL240banner ]The Pats’ offensive line is arguably the biggest question mark in the team, which should give the Ravens pass rush duo of Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs a distinct advantage. The next biggest question mark is how the Pats can defend the pass, which the Ravens can also exploit with Joe Flacco’s huge arm and a capable receiving duo of Steve and Torrey Smith.
It’s a well-established fact that the Pats are near-unbeatable at home; they’re 18-2 in their last 20 games (including playoffs). But Baltimore has the tools to make this a much closer game than the Pats would like.
Carolina Panthers vs. Seattle Seahawks (8:15 PM ET)
Writer’s Pick: Panthers (+11)
Since Ron Rivera took over at Carolina back in 2011, the Panthers have played the Seahawks close every time they’ve met. The Panthers have lost by four (twice) and five points in their last three meetings against Seattle, including a closely contested 13-9 loss this year which needed a last-minute Russell Wilson touchdown for Seattle to kill Carolina off.
Granted, all three games have been at Carolina, which is an entirely different proposition than going to arguably the most effective home field advantage in the league.
But this Panthers defense has performed very well over the last month of the season. They’re giving up just under 12 points per game in their last five games and could keep what has been an ordinary Seahawks offense – one that has scored over 20 points just twice in the last six games – from pulling away by double-digits.
Create a betting account now and take a good hard look at a potentially profitable double-digit playoff underdog this week.
Sunday, January 11
Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers (1:05 PM ET)
Writer’s Pick: Packers (-6.5)
It’s very tempting to take the Cowboys at Lambeau. Dallas went a perfect 8-0 on the road in the regular season and 7-1 against the spread. Meanwhile, the offense which struggled considerably against the Lions’ top-ranked defense should have a markedly easier time against a less imposing Packers D.
But Green Bay has proven that it’s just too good at home to be backed by less than a touchdown. The Packers went 8-0 at home and 6-1-1 against the spread. They rank no. 1 in points per game at home at just under 40 per game. They won by 19.4 points per game, a field goal better than the Patriots, whom they also beat at Lambeau by five this season.
Matthew Stafford has struggled to move the ball against teams outside of the very worst pass defenses in the league (the Saints, Falcons, Bears, and Buccaneers) and even he notched up 323 yards on the Cowboys defense. Just think what Aaron Rodgers can do against them at Lambeau.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos (4:40 PM ET)
Writer’s Pick: Broncos (-7.5)
Unless Daniel Herron actually did sell his soul to the devil, he will not have another night like he had against the Bengals (141 yards from scrimmage). Moreover, the Colts should not expect to run the ball as effectively as they did against Cincy. The Bengals rank No. 28 in run defense; the Broncos are ranked No. 3.
Instead, the Colts should be worried about the suddenly run-oriented Broncos running the ball down their throat as the Patriots did both this season and in last year’s divisional round. CJ Anderson has been Daniel Herron-esque for two solid months; he’s topped 95 yards from scrimmage in seven of the last eight games with 10 touchdowns (eight rushing, two receiving).
And say what you will about the demise of Peyton Manning, who’s thrown twice as many picks (six) as touchdowns (three) in the last four weeks, but he should still have enough left in the tank to move the ball on a so-so Colts defense.
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