Foxboro has been a near-impenetrable fortress for the New England Patriots for many years, especially come playoff time. However, Joe Flacco and the Baltimore Ravens have had more success than most in Gillette Stadium, dealing the Pats two of their last three home playoff losses.
Fresh off a road upset of the rival Pittsburgh Steelers, Flacco and the Ravens will have another shot to bring down Tom Brady and his mighty Pats in front of their home crowd when they meet in the AFC Divisional Round this Saturday.
Think these Ravens are primed for another upset? Read on below for our preview of this AFC playoff matchup. And to see who the winner faces in the AFC Championship Game, check out our preview of the Colts vs. Broncos.
[sc:Football ]Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots Betting Preview
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro
When: Saturday, January 10, 4:35 PM ET
Line: Baltimore Ravens (+7.5) at New England Patriots (-7.5); total 49.0 – view all NFL lines
Betting on the Baltimore Ravens
Joe Flacco may not actually be the “best quarterback in football” as his head coach claims, but he’s certainly been playing like it come playoff time. Flacco completed 18 of 29 passes for 259 yards and two touchdowns to lead the Ravens to a 30-17 upset road win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the wild-card round.
[sc:NFL240banner ]The Ravens, who missed the playoffs last season after winning the Super Bowl in 2013, have now won five consecutive playoff games with their quarterback a huge reason for their success. Flacco has thrown 13 touchdowns with zero interceptions in his last five playoff games.
Baltimore also improved to 10-4 all-time in the postseason with Flacco, who owns the most career road playoff wins with seven. Two of those seven road wins have actually come at Foxboro, including a gem in the 2013 AFC title game when he threw three unanswered second-half touchdowns for the 28-13 win.
Flacco’s canon of an arm will be a massive weapon against a Pats pass defense that has been susceptible to big plays all season long. New England gave up 62 plays of 20-plus yards, tied for third in the NFL during the regular season. Flacco has a couple of very capable deep threat receivers at his disposal in Torrey Smith and Steve Smith Sr., who caught a crucial 40-yard bomb against the Steelers.
On the other side of the ball, the Ravens defense – particularly the dominant front – stepped up big time, sacking Ben Roethlisberger five times and picking him off twice. Elvis Dumervil had two of those five sacks and also delivered two more quarterback hits. He and Terrell Suggs will lead a very disruptive pass rush against a Pats offensive line that looked wobbly in the last few weeks of the season.
Betting on the New England Patriots
The New England Patriots are right where they want to be after another first-round bye: well-rested and at home for the divisional round. The Pats had also gained an extra week off in the last three postseasons, which head coach Bill Belichick took full advantage of. They went 3-0 in those games, scoring an average of 43 points per game with a 23-point average margin of victory.
That tremendous homefield advantage is as strong as ever this season. The Pats went 7-1 (5-3 against the spread) at Foxboro last season, with their lone defeat coming in a meaningless 17-9 loss in Week 17 against Buffalo. They had also averaged 36 points per game at home through seven weeks, which would’ve ranked second in the NFL.
For the first time in two postseasons, the Pats will be able to call on their most dangerous receiver, Rob Gronkowski, who had missed this crucial period in recent years due to injury. Gronk, who was rested on Week 17, was a monster in his first fully healthy season since 2011. He had 1,124 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns, both tops in the league for a tight end.
The New England offensive line will be key in giving quarterback Tom Brady the time in the pocket to connect with Gronk, as well as his other wide receivers, to expose a suspect and injury-ravaged Ravens secondary. The bye week has been crucial in getting that O-line back healthy, with Nate Solder (knee), Dan Connolly (knee) and Sebastian Vollmer (back) all set to go after resting up lingering injuries.
Writer’s Prediction
The Ravens are able to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball to keep the game close, but the Pats just squeak away with another home win. Take New England to win, but Baltimore to cover, +7.5. Create a betting account now and watch out for some sneaky road upsets in the NFL postseason.
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