The Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks’ chances of defending their title this year are growing more and more uncertain after the Seahawks dropped to 6-4 on the season with a loss at Kansas City. The good news is they return back home in Week 12; the bad news is they host the 9-1 Arizona Cardinals, who are riding a six-game winning streak to the place where only they emerged victorious last season.
That huge NFC West showdown headlines an action-packed 15-game slate, which also features a marquee rivalry game on Sunday night. Read up on the big NFC East battle between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants here, as well as all our spread picks for NFL’s Week 12.
[sc:Football ]Complete NFL Week 12 Picks
Thursday, November 20
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Oakland Raiders (8:25 PM ET)
Writer’s Pick: Raiders +7.5
[sc:NCAA240banner ]The Chiefs have been just about the most reliable team against the spread this season, covering eight out of their 10 games, including five-of-five during their win streak. But the Chiefs and their lack of offense outside of Jamaal Charles is a tricky proposition to cover a sizable spread, especially on the road.
Furthermore, this is a Raiders team with a solid run defense (14th in run defense DVOA prior to Week 11) that has lost to very good teams in the Pats, Seahawks and Chargers (twice) by a touchdown or less this season.
Sunday, November 23
Cleveland Browns vs. Atlanta Falcons (1:00 PM ET)
Writer’s Pick: Browns +3.5
Since Week 3, Matt Ryan has thrown just one multi-touchdown game in the last seven weeks. That’s not great. Meanwhile, the Browns defense has been solid against the pass and atrocious against the run. Thankfully for them, the Falcons have no running game to speak of.
Plus, there’s the much-anticipated return of Browns receiver Josh Gordon, who will be greeted by the Falcons’ league-worst pass defense.
Tennessee Titans vs. Philadelphia Eagles (1:00 PM ET)
Writer’s Pick: Titans +11
Between Mark Sanchez’s propensity to throw the ball to the opposition (he has four interceptions in three games) and the running game’s inconsistency (190 yards vs. the Texans followed by 146 total yards against the Panthers and Packers), there are just too many question marks to back the Eagles by double digits against any team.
Detroit Lions vs. New England Patriots (1:00 PM ET)
Writer’s Pick: Patriots -7.5
The Patriots have scored 51, 43 and 42 points in their last three games, two of which have come at home. The Lions, on the other hand, have averaged a mere 15 points in five road games this season (including their neutral site game vs. the Falcons in London).
The Lions’ defense has arguably been the best this season, but it’ll take a lot more than that to even come close to ending the Pats’ six-game winning streak in New England.
Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings (1:00 PM ET)
Writer’s Pick: Packers -10.5
The Packers in their last two games: 108 points, 72 in the first half alone; nine passing touchdowns; four defense/special teams touchdowns; one rushing touchdown. That’s 14 touchdowns in two games.
The Vikings, in comparison, have scored nine touchdowns in their last six games, four of which coming in a single game. In short: no way can this Vikings offense hang with the Packers.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts (1:00 PM ET)
Writer’s Pick: Colts -13.5
Three straight double-digit losses suggest that the Jags are slowly but surely packing it in this season. Blake Bortles is a turnover machine (14 interceptions and counting), while Andrew Luck (the Patriots notwithstanding) is a scoring machine. Just ask the Jags defense that was blitzed 30-0 by Luck and the Colts in the first half in Jacksonville.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Houston Texans (1:00 PM ET)
Writer’s Pick: Texans -1.5
Andy Dalton, A.J. Green and Jeremy Hill all had big bounce-back games in the Bengals’ big road win in New Orleans on Sunday, but just about the only thing that’s consistent with the Bengals nowadays is its simply awful run defense.
Even the Browns, who have been struggling to run the ball on anyone, compiled 170 yards and three rushing touchdowns on the Bengals. It’s scary to think what a Texans team that rushed for 213 yards without lead back Arian Foster could do against them with him back in the lineup.
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills (1:00 PM ET)
Writer’s Pick: Jets +5
Since Sammy Watkins injured his groin during their bye week, the Bills have scored just 22 total points in their last two games. The Jets’ secondary is a mess, but a less-than-100-percent Watkins limits an already limited Buffalo offense that can only hope to run the ball against the Jets’ outstanding front seven.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Chicago Bears (1:00 PM ET)
Writer’s Pick: Bears -6
Mike Evans (21 catches, 458 yards, five touchdowns in last three games) has been an absolute beast and all, but the Bears have two receivers as good as or even better than Evans in Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall going up against the Bucs’ brutal secondary.
There’s also the Marc Trestman factor, who should know Bucs quarterback Josh McCown’s best and worst tendencies after coaching him to much success last year.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks (4:05 PM ET)
Writer’s Pick: Cardinals +6.5
The Super Bowl champion Seahawks have earned the respect they receive when they’re at home, but so have the Cardinals. Even though their starting quarterback and several key defensive starters are all down, the Cards still find themselves 9-1 straight up and 8-2 against the spread – both the best records in the NFL this season. And you may have also forgotten that the Cards were the only team to beat the Seahawks in Seattle last season.
Everyone’s seen Arizona slow down Dallas’ running game, so shutting down Seattle on the ground isn’t at all farfetched. Without that, it’s increasingly tough to see Seattle doing much else on offense.
St. Louis Rams vs. San Diego Chargers (4:05 PM ET)
Writer’s Pick: Rams +6
This Rams defense is pretty good. Any team that limits Peyton Manning and the almighty (albeit injury-hit) Broncos offense to only seven points should be. The Rams’ revitalized defensive line, which sacked Manning twice and delivered four quarterback hits, will be out for Philip Rivers’ blood.
That’s not good for the Chargers considering Rivers is still visibly hurting from his rib injury, which limited him in their “narrow” seven-point win over the winless Raiders.
Miami Dolphins vs. Denver Broncos (4:25 PM ET)
Writer’s Pick: Dolphins +8
It’s one thing for Peyton Manning and the Broncos to face the Dolphins and their suddenly lockdown D (No. 1 in pass defense DVOA prior to Week 11) but it’s another thing to do so potentially without two of their biggest offensive weapons in Julius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders.
And if Manning thinks facing the Rams’ pass rush is bad, he should brace himself for the dynamic duo of Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon chasing after him all day long.
Washington Redskins vs. San Francisco 49ers (4:25 PM ET)
Writer’s Pick: Redskins -9
As bad as Robert Griffin III and the Redskins played against the Bucs on Sunday, the 49ers offense still looks too questionable to be favored by over a touchdown, even at home. They only scored 16 points on a Giants defense that had been giving up 34 points per game over the past month, and have only won by over a touchdown in two of their six wins this season.
Furthermore, the Redskins have been pretty passable in run defense, which is always a big thing against the run-happy Niners.
Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants (8:30 PM ET)
Writer’s Pick: Cowboys -3.5
The mismatch between the Cowboys’ 2nd-ranked rushing attack (153.2 yards per game) up against the Giants’ dead-last run defense (145 yards allowed per game) is a big factor, but there’s also the Cowboys’ possible mentality heading into this game. Dallas has the extra incentive to get as far ahead as quickly as possible in order to sit Tony Romo in preparation for their big Thursday night game against the Eagles.
Monday, November 24
Baltimore Ravens vs. New Orleans Saints (8:30 PM ET)
Writer’s Pick: Ravens +3.5
Through the past two weeks, the Saints have proven themselves to a) be very beatable at home and b) not be a very good football team, especially on defense. The Ravens are every bit as good as the 49ers and Bengals, and though they might not be able to hand the Saints a three-game home losing streak, they’re certainly capable of taking them all the way and staying within a field goal.
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