And then there were four. There are still a record four teams left with unbeaten records as the 2015 NFL regular season heads into the halfway stage in Week 9. Two of those perfect teams (the Bengals and Patriots) will be double-digit favorites at home, while the other two (the Panthers and Broncos) will have to deal with a couple of big-name quarterbacks in order to preserve their immaculate records.
Let’s take a look at all 13 matchups for the week and provide our picks for who ultimately comes out on top. Meanwhile, don’t forget to check out our complete previews of the prime time encounters of the Browns vs. Bengals and Eagles vs. Cowboys.
[sc:Football ]2015 NFL Week 9 Picks
Thursday, November 5
Cleveland Browns (+11) at Cincinnati Bengals (-11)
[sc:NFL240banner ]Josh McCown is so banged up that Johnny Manziel is expected to start. The defense has been very disappointing; it’s ranked in the bottom fifth of the league per DVOA. But it’s still a division game, which is hardly ever a blowout. The Browns have lost just once in the last eight years by over 10 points in Cincy.
Meanwhile, the Bengals are coming off a physically and emotionally taxing win over the Steelers. And it’s Andy Dalton in prime time, where he’s just 3-7 in his career. Are you really ready to lay that many points on him, especially on a short week?
Writer’s Prediction: The Browns (+11) make it closer than expected and cover in a 24-17 loss.
Sunday, November 8
Oakland Raiders (+4.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5)
Surprise, surprise. The Raiders are 4-3 and are actually good. Derek Carr and co. simply torched the Jets defense on Sunday and have now put up back-to-back impressive outings.
It might be a bit too soon to expect them to come into Pittsburgh and beat a solid Steelers team straight up, but the Raiders are definitely one of the few teams at the moment that can hang with Ben Roethlisberger and that big-play Steelers offense.
Writer’s Prediction: The Raiders (+4.5) lose, but cover in a 31-28 road loss.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets
The Jets’ situation on offense isn’t pretty. Both quarterbacks – Ryan Fitzpatrick and Geno Smith – got dinged up in their big road loss to the Raiders (which has put rookie Bryce Petty in the mix to start), and so is top running back Chris Ivory.
It’s never a good spot to bet on Blake Bortles, who is still winless (0-9) in his career on the road. But if there’s ever a time to back the Jags quarterback, it’s this Sunday against whoever the Jets will be trotting out under center.
Writer’s Prediction: The Jags get the big win, 17-14.
St. Louis Rams (+3) at Minnesota Vikings (-3)
The Rams and Vikings are essentially the same team. Both teams have electric running backs playing alongside shaky quarterbacks and shakier offensive lines. They also share terrific defensive lines that can flat out dominate games.
At the moment though, the Rams have the better all-around defense. Their star running back, Todd Gurley, is also playing better and has not rushed for fewer than 120 yards when he’s started this season. Those advantages should give the Rams the edge in this matchup.
Writer’s Prediction: Gurley leads the way as the Rams (+3) upset the Vikings, 24-17.
Miami Dolphins (+3) at Buffalo Bills (-3)
The Bills battered the Dolphins, 41-14 in Miami back in Week 3, but have not put up a single inspiring performance since. On the flipside, the Dolphins looked very impressive in their back-to-back blowouts of the Titans and Texans prior to their drubbing at the hands of the Pats.
Despite the loss of Miami’s top pass rusher Cam Wake to a torn Achilles and the return of starting Bills QB Tyrod Taylor from injury, the Dolphins have the weapons on offense with Ryan Tannehill, Lamar Miller and Jarvis Landry to return the favor and beat the Bills in Buffalo.
Writer’s Prediction: The Dolphins (+3) get the road win, 30-24.
Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints
The Titans’ quarterback play has been spotty, especially after Zach Mettenberger replaced the injured Marcus Mariota, but it’s not the only reason why the Titans offense has scored just 36 points in the last four games. Mariota’s likely return in New Orleans will be a nice boost, but he’ll have a new head coach after Ken Whisenhunt got canned.
Meanwhile, Drew Brees is slinging it like its 2004. The Saints are averaging 36 points per game in their last three at the Superdome, which should be more than enough to cover given how the Titans offense has played.
Writer’s Prediction: The Saints smoke the Titans, with whoever their quarterback is, 35-10.
Washington Redskins (+14) at New England Patriots (-14)
Speaking of supercharged offenses, Tom Brady and the Pats have been simply unstoppable, especially at Foxboro. They’re averaging 36.2 points per game at home, a full four points more than the second-place Saints. 14 points is a big number, but the Pats were laying those same 14 points against Jacksonville in Week 3 and covered comfortably with a 51-17 win.
The Pats are 4-2-1 ATS this season and are 13-5-2 ATS in their last 20 home games. Don’t overthink this.
Writer’s Prediction: The Pats (-14) put up some points in an easy 42-14 win.
Green Bay Packers (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers (+2.5)
The Panthers got a little lucky to escape Andrew Luck and the Colts’ comeback on Monday night. But they probably won’t get quite as lucky against Aaron Rodgers and a Packers team that will be all sorts of fired up after getting humiliated on prime time.
The Packers were absolutely shut down by the Denver defense. The Panthers D is also really good, but it’s probably not good enough to make Rodgers look like a bum for a second week in a row.
Writer’s Prediction: The Packers (-2.5) bounce back for a big 24-17 win over the Panthers.
Atlanta Falcons (-7) at San Francisco 49ers (+7)
The Falcons were 4-0 ATS through the first four weeks of the season; they’ve gone 0-4 ATS through the last four, and against the notoriously bad defenses of the Redskins, Saints, Titans and Buccaneers to boot. However, the Niners are a different level of bad at the moment. Blaine Gabbert’s now the starting quarterback, and he has no running game (or even running backs) to help him out.
The Niners have generated 331 yards of total offense for nine points in three weeks. Again: don’t overthink this.
Writer’s Prediction: The Falcons (-7) finally get their act together with a 35-7 win over the Niners.
New York Giants (-2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5)
Here’s a question: are the Giants really any good? Consider their last four games: they could only beat the Niners by three at home, lost soundly at the Eagles, needed a late kick return touchdown to beat the Matt Cassel-led Cowboys at home, and gave up 52 points in a loss at the Saints.
On the flipside, Jameis Winston and the Bucs have won two out of three, and probably should’ve won them all. The jury’s still out on whether they really are good, but with the way they’ve been playing, they look good enough to beat the unconvincing Giants.
Writer’s Prediction: The Bucs (+2.5) pull off the big win as home underdogs, 30-27.
Denver Broncos (-5) at Indianapolis Colts (+5)
After seeing how the Broncos defense systematically dismantled the best quarterback in the NFL at Mile High, it’s entirely possible that they just break Andrew Luck in half. At the very least, they force him to another multi-turnover game, which isn’t really that hard.
Oh, and in case no one noticed, Peyton Manning still has a bit left in the tank. (Although, having a weapon like Demaryius Thomas also helps. A lot.) This will very likely be Peyton’s last visit to his old home in Indianapolis, and you better believe he wants to go out a winner.
Writer’s Prediction: The Broncos (-5) beat up on Luck and the Colts, 27-13.
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Dallas Cowboys (+3)
So, the Cowboys still haven’t won a game since Tony Romo went down to injury against the Eagles back in Week 2. The Eagles still lost that game, in large part because they had absolutely no running game then. Well, they do now and they won’t be afraid to use it against the Cowboys this time around.
As unconvincing as Sam Bradford has been this season, has Matt Cassel inspired any sort of confidence in his short time in Dallas? Didn’t think so.
Writer’s Prediction: The Eagles (-3) get a big road win, 27-21, over the Cowboys.
Sunday, November 9
Chicago Bears (+4) at San Diego Chargers (-4)
Are the 2-6 Chargers really better than the 2-5 Bears that they deserve to be favored by over a field goal? The Bears have played their last four opponents to within a single field goal, so they know how to keep it very close. And while the absence of Matt Forte will be big, the same can be said of Keenan Allen’s injury for the Chargers.
Writer’s Prediction: The Bears (+4) lose another close one, 27-24.
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