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2016 NBA Southwest Division Preview
San Antonio Spurs (-600)
Projected wins: 56.0
Writer’s prediction: 55 – UNDER
Who else should be the favorites to win the division? The Spurs are regular fixtures in the list of title contenders, let alone division champions.
Tim Duncan is now out there somewhere, enjoying his awesome retirement money, but the Spurs should still have no problem being the Spurs. The team will still have the leadership of Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, along with the rise of Kawhi Leonard, one of the best-two way players we’ve seen in a long while.
On the low post, meanwhile, they have a new set of twin towers – LaMarcus Aldridge should perform better in his second year under Gregg Popovich’s system, while Paul Gasol’s style of play is a good replacement to The Big Fundamental.
The Spurs have recorded 50 or more wins in 17 straight seasons.
Houston Rockets (+900)
Projected wins: 44.5
Writer’s prediction: 49 – OVER
The structure in which the Houston Rockets were built, which is run and gun offense, is perfect for new head coach Mike D’Antoni, a maestro of the system. If they execute it well, they can come back as strong contenders in the West.
The veteran coach made quite the news prior to the start of training camp, when he confirmed that James Harden, a natural two, will now be the team’s new starting point guard. It will be strange to watch the All-Star guard play the position, but he definitely has the skills to do so – Harden is averaging 27 points, five rebounds, and seven assists in his four-year career with the Rockets.
Among the key players they picked up in the summer were Ryan Anderson, Eric Gordon, and Nene. The three are projected to flourish under D’Antoni’s style, with Anderson and Gordon being three-point specialists, and Nene being a good rebounder that can play the high post and hit elbow jumpers.
Memphis Grizzlies (+900)
Projected wins: 43.5
Writer’s prediction: 43 – UNDER
Memphis will look to bounce back from last year’s injury-plagued season, and it’ll start with two guys: Mike Conley and Marc Gasol.
Conley, who stole money signed for an eye-popping five-year, $153 million contract in the off-season with the Grizz, must prove that he’s really worth that type of dough, which is almost impossible to do.
Gasol, meanwhile, will have a bigger role on offense and defense, with his rebounding partner Zach Randolph having reduced minutes.
Their biggest free agent signing, Chandler Parsons, is still healing from knee injury. He won’t be available for at least the first several games, but he should be able to help the team’s decade-long problem in three-point shooting when he comes back.
If Conley and Gasol are not slowed down by injuries, and Parsons is able to stay healthy and provide quality play, the Grizzlies will be playoff-bound again.
Dallas Mavericks (+2,000)
Projected wins: 39.5
Writer’s prediction: 37 – UNDER
The Dallas Mavericks, for the nth time, failed to land a big name on free agency, so they just settled on the mid-tier guys. They were able to sign the Warriors’ Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut, plus Stephen Curry’s little brother, Seth. Now, they’re good enough to be the Golden State Warriors 2.0.
Of course we’re kidding. With the pool of talent filled with mid-tiers and Dirk Nowitzki a year older, there’s a strong chance that the Mavs won’t make it to the playoffs this year. Bogut gives a heck of an effort on rebounding and defense, and Barnes can play both sides of the ball when he wants to, but we’re not sure if they can do it effectively when they are the true main guys.
New Orleans Pelicans (+2,000)
Projected wins: 36.5
Writer’s prediction: 36 – UNDER
Injuries can’t seem to let go of the Pelicans. Franchise player Anthony Davis is seemingly unable to play in 70 or more games in a season, and he’s already four years in, while their do-it-all swingman, Tyreke Evans, will be having back-to-back shortened seasons due to lingering knee problems.
The team will also be without starting point guard Jrue Holiday for an extended period time, as he is attending his wife’s medical treatment. The seven-year veteran, though, hasn’t had a full year with the Pels either, missing 107 games in the past three seasons.
New Orleans’ key off-season signings include Solomon Hill, E’Twaun Moore, Tim Frazier, Lance Stephenson, and 2016 first-round pick Buddy Hield. All can play their positions well, but it doesn’t look like they can help the team claim a playoff spot.
Writer’s Prediction – Standings
Order in the standings:
- San Antonio Spurs (UNDER)
- Houston Rockets (OVER)
- Memphis Grizzlies (PUSH)
- Dallas Mavericks (UNDER)
- New Orleans Pelicans (UNDER)
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