It seems like a forgone conclusion who will win the West (again) in this upcoming 2016-17 NBA season. The Golden State Warriors have won it each of the past two years, and should be even better this year. Exactly how the rest of the conference shakes out below them remains pretty intriguing, though.
Let’s take a shot at projecting the West’s standings from top to bottom, and see whether each team goes over/under its regular season wins totals.
*Odds to win Western Conference championship are in parenthesis
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2016-17 NBA Western Conference Preview
The Playoff Teams
1. Golden State Warriors (-350)
Last season: 73-9
This season: 65-17 – under 66.0 wins
The Warriors most likely aren’t going to go all out to win 70-plus games again. But with Kevin Durant joining an already historic lineup, anything other than 60-plus wins and the No. 1 seed in the West should be considered a major disappointment.
And come playoff time, is there any team in the conference that can hang with them for seven games now that Durant is out of OKC? Seriously doubt it. Barring a major injury to a key player, the Warriors look set to win a third straight conference title.
2. San Antonio Spurs (+425)
Last season: 67-15
This season: 57-25 – push 57.0 wins
Tim Duncan is retired; Manu Ginobli is about to retire; Tony Parker is old; and now there are rumors of unrest surrounding LaMarcus Aldridge. Those are all legitimate reasons to be worried about the Spurs this season.
But the reasons to be high on them – an MVP candidate in Kawhi Leonard and the sorcery of Gregg Popovich – are still pretty convincing. They may not have the horses to supplant the Warriors, but they are definitely one of the few teams that can push them hard.
3. Los Angeles Clippers (+1,400)
Last season: 53-29
This season: 55-27 – over 54.0 wins
The Clippers are giving this core of Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan, and J.J. Redick one last go. And if they can stay healthy come playoff time, this could finally be the season where they break through. That’s a big “if,” though.
And even if they do remain healthy, they still need to overcome the Warriors despite their lack of reliable wing players who can hang with Durant and Thompson along the perimeter.
4. Portland Trail Blazers (+4,000)
Last season: 44-38
This season: 46-36 – over 45.0 wins
Predicted by many to be a cellar-dweller in the West last year, the Blazers defied those expectations as they stormed into the playoffs. Led by their excellent backcourt of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, they had one of the most efficient offenses in the league.
They didn’t really seem to improve appreciably even after spending a lot of money during the offseason. Their big man rotation, in particular, is a still significant question mark. But as long as Dame and CJ are healthy, they still look like the best team outside the established top 3 in the conference.
5. Utah Jazz (+4,000)
Last season: 40-42
This season: 45-37
There’s a lot of hype surrounding the Jazz entering this season, and with good reason. Despite lacking that marquee superstar, this is a very well-built roster that is deep and can defend. Rudy Gobert is an absolute rock in the middle, and the additions of George Hill, Boris Diaw, and Joe Johnson were some of the savvier moves of the offseason.
There are still a few question marks on offense, especially with top scorer Gordon Hayward’s injury. But the defense is good enough for the Jazz to make their much-awaited return to the postseason.
6. Houston Rockets (+6,000)
Last season: 41-41
This season: 44-38 – over 43.5 wins
At the very least, the Rockets should be entertaining to watch with Mike D’Antoni now at the helm. The architect of the Seven Seconds or Less Suns has given the keys to the offense to James Harden, who will now be the team’s full-time point guard.
The Rockets will struggle to stop anyone on defense, which will be a problem come the playoffs. But the offense with knockdown shooters in Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon providing Harden with proper spacing should be good enough for them to break back into the playoff spots in the West.
7. Minnesota Timberwolves (+3,500)
Last season: 29-53
This season: 43-39 – over 41.5 wins
The Timberwolves are primed to be this year’s Blazers-esque breakout team. They have an incredibly young, talented roster headlined by reigning Rookie of the Year Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins. And now, Tom Thibodeau is on board as head coach/president of basketball operations.
Thibs’ addition basically guarantees a marked improvement in the team’s defense, which was horrendous last season. Towns, Wiggins, and Zach LaVine should all continue to improve as well under Thibs’ tutelage, and that should be enough to see the T-Wolves take a huge step up the West standings.
8. Memphis Grizzlies (+3,500)
Last season: 42-40
This season: 42-40 – under 44.0 wins
The Grizzlies were decimated by injuries last season, with Mike Conley and Marc Gasol missing large chunks of year. Having those two back will be a major boost to a team which looked like a glorified D-League team at times. Don’t expect marquee free-agent signing Chandler Parsons to last a full season, though, and with a shallow bench, the Grit-‘n-Grind Grizz will struggle just to crack into the playoffs.
Lottery-Bound
9. Oklahoma City Thunder (+2,000)
Last season: 55-27
This season: 41-41 – under 45.0 wins
The Russell Westbrook revenge tour will be a sight to behold this season, but the Thunder just lost too much on both ends of the floor with the departure of Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka. Replacing those two with Victor Oladipo and Ersan Ilyasova will take a huge hit on their offense, and not even Westbrook can slice his way to the hoop against defenses which will consistently collapse in the paint against him.
10. Dallas Mavericks (+10,000)
Last season: 42-40
This season: 40-42 – over 39.5 wins
Rick Carlisle’s ability to continually push subpar Mavs rosters into the playoffs has been nothing short of extraordinary. But that impressive run likely comes to an end this season. This is finally the season 38-year-old Dirk Nowitzki loses a step, while top free-agent signing Harrison Barnes fails to live up to his new role.
11. Denver Nuggets (+15,000)
Last season: 33-49
This season: 37-45 – push 37.0 wins
The Nuggets have a lot of promising young pieces – Nikola Jokic, Emmanuel Mudiay, and Jamal Murray to name three. But unlike the Timberwolves, none of those have the sure-fire star power of a Towns or a Wiggins. They can make incremental improvements this season, but are likely a year or two away from truly contending for a postseason spot.
12. New Orleans Pelicans (+6,000)
Last season: 30-52
This season: 34-48 – under 36.5 wins
The injury bug continues to bite the Pelicans, and Anthony Davis in particular. The talented big man has been unable to consistently stay on the court in his career, and he will miss his share of time again. No offense to offseason additions Solomon Hill and E’Twaun Moore, but the roster around the Brow still isn’t good enough for him to fulfill his potential when he does play. As a result, the Pellies return to the lottery.
13. Los Angeles Lakers (+15,000)
Last season: 17-65
This season: 32-50 – over 25.5 wins
The Lakers are trending upward. They have finally moved on from Kobe Bryant, which will allow their promising young players – D’Angelo Russell, Jordan Clarkson, Brandon Ingram – to step up to a larger role. They also have a young, energetic new head coach in Luke Walton who will put his young roster in a position to succeed. They still won’t sniff the playoffs, but seeds of optimism will be sown.
14. Sacramento Kings (+20,000)
Last season: 33-49
This season: 30-52 – under 32.5 wins
The Kings are still a mess from top to bottom. No matter how good DeMarcus Cousins is, he can’t transcend the dysfunction of this franchise. Brace yourselves for another season at the basement, Kings fans.
15. Phoenix Suns (+30,000)
Last season: 23-59
This season: 26-56 – under 29.0 wins
The Suns have grossly surpassed expectations before, but they should be considerably bad this season. Devin Booker looks like the real deal, but rookies Marquess Chriss and Dragan Bender are nowhere near ready to be immediate NBA contributors. And don’t be surprised if they move Eric Bledsoe and/or Brandon Knight midseason.
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