With World No. 1 Novak Djokovic and seven-time winner Roger Federer both opting to skip this year’s Cincinnati Masters, World No. 2 Andy Murray will be the undisputed man to beat. The newly-crowned Olympic tennis gold medalist and No. 1 seed will get a chance to catch his breath a bit as he gets a first-round bye.
Murray has had a disappointing record in hard court Masters events this year. He crashed out in the round of 32 in both Indian Wells and Miami this season. However, he sure seems to fancy Cincinnati. He’s won the event twice (2008 and 2011) and has reached at least the quarterfinals in each of the last three years.
Stan Wawrinka
Wawrinka is having another stellar season on hard court. The World No. 4 is 17-4 and has won two of his three titles this season (Chennai and Dubai) on the surface. Wawrinka came close to making it three hard court titles recently, but he came up short against Kei Nishikori in the semifinals of the Canadian Masters.
Wawrinka, who skipped on the Olympics due to a back injury, will get an extra day’s rest care of a first-round bye as the tournament’s No. 2 seed, not to mention a pretty easy road to the semifinals at the very least. Wawrinka’s toughest possible opponent in that round will most likely be No. 7 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. The Swiss has won his last three meetings against the Frenchman, although all have been on clay.
Rafael Nadal
Despite failing to medal in the Olympics, Nadal will still be one of the favorites heading into Cincinnati. The World No. 5 got a No. 3 seed in the tournament, and will have quite a workable road to the quarterfinals.
Due to more lingering injuries, Nadal has appeared in just four hard court tournaments this season, excluding the Olympics. He’s been quite a mixed bag in those tournaments as well. He reached the final in Doha and the semifinal at Indian Wells, but lost both to Novak Djokovic. However, he also crashed out in the first round of both the Australian Open and the Miami Masters.
Nadal has been a non-factor in Cincinnati for the last two years (a third-round exit last year and an injury withdrawal in 2014) but he did win the tournament back in 2013.
Sleeper
Gael Monfils
Monfils is having arguably his best-ever season on hard court. The 29-year-old Frenchman lost in the quarterfinals of the Olympic tournament to eventual bronze medalist Kei Nishikori. Prior to that, though, the World No. 11 won the Citi Open in Washington and reached the semifinals of the Canadian Masters, losing to eventual champion Novak Djokovic.
Monfils is 22-5 on the year on hard court, as he also reached the quarterfinals of the Australian Open, the Indian Wells Masters, and the Miami Masters. However, he has only gotten past the third round of the Cincinnati Masters just once in eight tries, and crashed out in the very first round last year. Nevertheless, Monfils is a big -400 favorite in his first round matchup against Pablo Carreno Busta.
Long Shot
Fernando Verdasco
Verdasco’s never been the strongest player on hard court. His mediocre 8-6 record on the surface this season would be his best since 2012. However, don’t discount the Spaniard from pulling a shock upset in Cincinnati.
The World No. 46, who is in the tournament as a wild card, is a -190 favorite in the first round over countryman Albert Ramos-Vinolas. He’s also a very competitive 5-5 in 10 career head-to-head meetings against No. 12 seed Marin Cilic, his potential second-round matchup.
Getting past No. 6 seed Tomas Berdych and No. 2 Rafael Nadal in the later rounds will be tough, but he does own wins over those top players.
Writer’s Prediction
The likes of Murray and Nadal have a bit of an Olympic hangover, which opens the door for Wawrinka to claim another hard court title.
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