Fall season is upon us, which means the 2016 NFL regular season is also about to commence.
The 2015 season was another exhilarating journey, with reigning league MVP Cam Newton leading the Carolina Panthers to the best record in the NFL before coming up one win short of winning the franchise’s first Super Bowl. Is Newton still the frontrunner for the MVP award this upcoming season? Let’s find out who the most noteworthy candidates are for the most prolific individual award in the NFL below.
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MVP Futures for the 2016 NFL Regular Season
*view all NFL regular season MVP futures odds here
Favorites
Aaron Rodgers (+500)
Although Rodgers had quite a mediocre campaign last year for his standards (less than 4,000 yards passing; first sub-100 QB rating since the 2008 season), many experts believe that Rodgers will dominate the league once more given how things have panned out with the Packers offense.
His favorite target, wide receiver Jordy Nelson, has fully recuperated from his torn ACL early last preseason, and running back Eddie Lacy is finally healthy and no longer looks like a human hamburger.
With the offense looking like a finely-tuned machine once more, Rodgers could very well runaway with the MVP award when all is said and done.
Ben Roethlisberger (+700)
There are actually three other quarterbacks breathing down Rodgers’ neck as +700 favorites to win the regular season MVP award: Carolina’s Cam Newton, Seattle’s Russell Wilson, and Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger.
Out of the three, we’re more inclined to give Roethlisberger the upper hand. Big Ben played just 12 games last season while nursing a sprained MCL, yet he still managed to throw for a career-high 68 percent completion rate and nearly broke the 4,000-yard plateau for the third-straight season (he finished with 3,938 passing yards at that). He had also shown great mettle without the team’s elite rusher, Le’Veon Bell, for much of the season.
Although Newton was simply phenomenal en route to winning his first MVP award last season, his character that was displayed in the Panthers’ Super Bowl 50 loss raises a red flag. Also, the rest of the league had a full offseason to prepare for Cam’s wily ways. As for Wilson, we still believe that he lacks the receivers to produce bigger numbers for him, and he could have probably lost some of his tenacious mojo now that he’s had that first, sweet taste of whoopee.
Sleepers
Carson Palmer (+1,400)
The laundry list of quarterback MVP candidates continues, and Arizona’s Carson Palmer is sure to be another noteworthy candidate for the award this season. Palmer, much like Newton, had a 2015 to remember in his third season with the Cardinals, putting up career-highs in passing yardage (4,671), average yards per attempt (8.7) and passer rating (104.6).
The knock on Palmer is that he’s already 36 years of age and has had his fair share of serious injuries already. Nevertheless, if health isn’t a key factor with your own pick for this season’s MVP, Palmer is one mighty fine option indeed.
Tom Brady (+1,500)
Sheesh… Even though he’s finally set to serve a four-game ban for Deflategate, the bookies still consider New England’s Tom Brady as a solid sleeper pick to win his third regular season MVP title.
And how could they not give Brady the benefit of the doubt despite missing the first quarter of the season? The four-time Super Bowl champion and three-time Super Bowl MVP has racked up no less than 4,100 passing yards in each of the past five seasons, and it’s clear that he can connect with any given Patriots receiver year-in and year-out. It’s just a matter of whether or not Brady can achieve his typical godlike numbers in just a span of 12 regular-season starts.
Long Shot
JJ Watt (+7,500)
Three-time and reigning Defensive Player of the Year JJ Watt is one nasty, relentless monster. He led the entire lead in sacks again last season (17.5), tallied over 75 tackles for the fourth-straight year, and is the main reason why the Houston Texans made the playoffs in spite of the team’s middling offense.
And with a bunch of new, more capable weapons on offense this season (QB Brock Osweiler, RB Lamar Miller), his case will be made even stronger, especially if the Texans end up winning the division with 12 or more wins in the bag.
However, Watt’s chances – despite of the possible output that he’s more than capable of exceeding from seasons past – are ultimately bleak. No defenseman in the NFL has won the league MVP award since Lawrence Taylor in 1986, as the league tends to favor offensive leaders than defensive juggernauts.
Eight of the last nine MVPs were quarterbacks, with the lone exception being Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson, who eclipsed the 2,000-yard rushing mark after a career-threatening torn ACL and MCL injury the previous year.
Writer’s Prediction
Roethlisberger (+700) has a banner campaign and wins his first-ever regular season MVP award.
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