We are just a week away from the biggest football game of the year, the Super Bowl LV battle between the defending Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs and the Tom Brady-led Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This is expected to be a closely contested game. Both teams are very much capable of scoring a bunch of points and are led by quarterbacks with Super Bowl experience. Will the Chiefs go back to back? Or will Brady get another ring by leading the Bucs to the franchise’s first Super Bowl win since 2003?
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Betting Preview for Super Bowl 55 Featuring the Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa
When: Sunday, February 7, 2020 6:30 PM ET
Line: Kansas City Chiefs (-3) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) OVER/UNDER 56.5 – view all 2021 NFL lines
TV Broadcast: CBS
Betting on the Kansas City Chiefs (-3 Spread / -165 Money)
The Chiefs have the luxury of having Patrick Mahomes. The Kansas City quarterback has been an unstoppable weapon for the Chiefs this season, and while he commits errors from time to time, it seems only to show only that he’s human. Mahomes finished the regular season with 4,740 passing yards and 38 touchdowns against only six interceptions. The Buccaneers have an idea of how good Mahomes is, as he torched Tampa Bay’s stop unit for 462 passing yards and three touchdowns and without an interception on 37-of-49 completions. As good as the Bucs’ defense has been from the regular season up to the playoffs, Mahomes has shown he can just about dominate any type of defensive package thrown at him. If the Bucs would want to blitz Mahomes to take away his space in the pocket, they should know that the former NFL MVP led the league in the regular season against such a type of tactic with a 96.8 percent success rate. The Bucs are an excellent pass-rushing team, but if they can’t get the results they want when blitzing Mahomes, that could leave them shifting away from one of their true strengths on the defensive end of the ball. Plus, the Chiefs can always turn to their rushing attack, with Clyde Edwards-Helaire appearing to be 100 percent healthy for the big game. Moreover, Mahomes is getting another explosive downfield weapon back in Sammy Watkins, who is set to return to action after missing multiple weeks due to a calf issue.
The Chiefs are 10-0 straight up and 5-4-1 against the spread in their last 10 games as the road team. The under has gone 6-4 in those games as well.
Betting on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3 Spread / +145 Money)
In Tom Brady the Buccaneers trust. But as much as Brady has been the leading subject when talking about the team, the Bucs’ defense has been just as great, if not better, this season. The Bucs’ stop unit finished the regular season ninth in the NFL in scoring defense with 22.3 points allowed per game and eighth in total defense with just 330.7 total yards surrendered per contest. The Bucs are especially fantastic against the run, having topped the league with only 81.4 rushing yards allowed per contest. Back in Week 12, Tampa Bay limited the Chiefs to only 87 rushing yards on 20 carries. But the biggest key for them, defensively, in Super Bowl LV is containing Mahomes in the pocket. As mentioned earlier, Mahomes succeeds more often than not against the blitz, but the Bucs have also just punished one of the game’s all-time greats in Aaron Rodgers, showing just how capable they are in slowing down a talented quarterback. While Rodgers went to pass for 346 passing yards and three touchdowns with just an interception, the Bucs had him sacked five times for a loss of 32 yards for Green Bay in the NFC Championship Game. Rodgers was also hit a total of eight times. Shaquil Barrett had three sacks while Jason Pierre-Paul took Rodgers to the ground twice. What’s even more encouraging for the Bucs’ defense heading into the Super Bowl is the fact that Mahomes will not have a key piece of his protection unit on Feb. 7. Offensive tackle Eric Fisher suffered a torn Achilles injury in the AFC title game against the Buffalo Bills and has been ruled out for the Super Bowl. His absence results in flimsier protection for Mahomes over the left side.
The Buccaneers are 6-3-1 against the spread in their last 10 games as the home underdog.
Writer’s Prediction
The Chiefs win, 34-30.
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