The 2016 Champions League is down to the elite eight. The big favorites remain in contention for European soccer’s biggest prize, but the quarterfinals will bring much tougher tests. Before the first leg matches begin, let’s divide the last eight into favorites, sleepers and long shots according to their updated odds to win the title, and break down their chances moving forward.
Still undefeated in this year’s competition and coming off a commanding 5-1 aggregate win over Arsenal, Barcelona are deservedly still the odds-on favorite at +150 to retain their title. However, those odds probably might have been even lower if they hadn’t drawn Spanish rivals Atletico Madrid in the quarters.
But as dangerous as Diego Simeone’s Atletico side is, are you really willing bet against Barca’s all-conquering Messi, Suarez, Neymar front three that’s already scored 106 goals and counting this season? Since those three came together last season, Barca have all six of their meetings with Atleti in all competitions.
Bayern Munich
Still right there with the defending champs are Bayern Munich, who are priced at +250 to send outgoing manager Pep Guardiola off with a third Champions League trophy.
The German champs had their hands full with Juventus in the previous round, and needed an incredible comeback in the second leg to go through. The Italians were able to expose an injury-hit Bayern backline over the two legs, which will be a slight worry for the Bavarians’ title chances. But after drawing Benfica in the quarterfinals, Bayern should at least have a much smoother run to the semis.
Sleepers
Real Madrid
After sweeping aside a flawed Roma team in the round of 16, Real Madrid got another favorable draw in the quarterfinals with German club Wolfsburg. With all due respect to the Germans, Real should definitely be able to reach the semis in that matchup.
However, question marks remain about Real’s ability to go toe-to-toe with the two clear-cut favorites. Inexperienced manager Zinedine Zidane has hardly been tested over his first three months in charge, and his one big test in the Madrid derby against Atletico ended in defeat.
But with the galactic talents of Cristiano Ronaldo – the Champions League’s leading scorer with 13 goals – spearheading a star-studded attack, Real remains a very solid play at +500 to win the cup.
Paris Saint-Germain
PSG powered past English champs Chelsea in the previous round, and will get another English powerhouse in Manchester City in the quarters. The newly-crowned French champions will have their undivided attention to the Champions League, while City must still worry about qualification for next season’s tournament.
If PSG do get past City, they have the top-end quality with Zlatan, Thiago Silva and Angel Di Maria and the squad depth to challenge any of the first three clubs mentioned above in the semis or even the final. At +750, they represent very good value to become the first French champions of Europe since 1993.
Atletico Madrid
Someone had to draw mighty Barcelona in the quarterfinals, and unfortunately for Atletico, it’s them. The odds reflect the Rojiblancos’ likely chances of crashing out in the last eight. They are now just +1,500 to win the tournament.
However, don’t sleep on Atletico’s ability to dig deep and defend well over two legs, even against Lionel Messi and co. Diego Simeone’s men did just that when they ousted Barca in the 2013-14 season en route to the Champions League final. The odds will be stacked against Atletico, but they still have a shot.
Manchester City
Manuel Pellegrini’s last season in charge of Man City isn’t going particularly well. Their English Premier League championship hopes are all but gone, and even their place in the top four is in peril. They could also be without captain Vincent Kompany for both quarterfinal legs, which would be a tremendous blow to their very shaky defense.
In all honesty, it’d be a big surprise if City manage to get past PSG in the quarters, and a bigger shock if their +2,000 odds to win the Champions League pay out in May.
Long Shots
Benfica
Benfica pulled off a bit of a shock after knocking out Zenit in the round of 16. But doing the same against Bayern would surely be pure fantasy. And even if they do somehow knock out the Germans, who did look a bit vulnerable at the back, does anyone see Benfica safely navigating through two more rounds with the likes of Barcelona and PSG still lurking?
The Portuguese are +10,000 long shots, but you might have a better chance of winning the lottery.
VfL Wolfsburg
Wolfsburg’s similarly priced at +10,000 to win the entire tournament, but they should at least stand a slightly better chance of knocking out Real Madrid.
Real aren’t really an all-conquering force, particularly at the back, and Wolfsburg have an exceptional talent in Julian Draxler who can capitalize on those weaknesses. Draxler’s Schalke team almost knocked Real out in last season’s round of 16. They defeated Real 4-3 at the Bernabeu, but just fell short, 5-4 on aggregate.
