The NL Cy Young has been Clayton Kershaw’s to lose for most of the decade. However, you could argue the Dodgers ace wasn’t even the best pitcher on his own team last season. Kershaw will be back to being the undisputed No. 1 in LA this year, but will he pitch well enough to reclaim his title as the best pitcher in the NL?
Let’s break down the top three contenders for the 2016 NL Cy Young award according to the current betting odds, along with two more unheralded bets that deserve more attention. Meanwhile, don’t forget to check out our breakdown of the 2016 AL Cy Young race.
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2016 NL Cy Young Award Odds Breakdown
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Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
It took some truly remarkable seasons from Jake Arrieta and Zack Greinke to push Clayton Kershaw all the way down to third in Cy Young voting last year. In any other season, though, the Dodgers lefty would’ve won his third-straight award walking away.
With Greinke gone, the Dodgers will need their ace to be at his absolute best this year. But is any pitcher a better bet to rise up to the challenge than Kershaw? The LA southpaw is priced at +175 to win his fourth Cy Young.
Jake Arrieta, RHP, Chicago Cubs
Over the last two months of the 2015 regular season, Jake Arrieta was virtually untouchable. He went 11-0 over his last 12 starts, with 89 strikeouts and a 0.41 ERA in 88.1 innings. His season numbers (22-6, 1.77 ERA, 236 SO) are just as impressive.
It was never going to last, though. He finally fell back down to earth in the playoffs, and there’s every chance that descent back to the mean continues this season. His 2.35 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) in 2015 is particularly indicative that his incredible success can’t sustain. However, his +700 odds to win are tempting enough to make you believe he’s capable of a repeat performance.
Create a betting account now and cash in on baseball’s best pitchers when the new MLB season begins.
Madison Bumgarner, LHP, San Francisco Giants
MadBum has been mad consistent over the last two years. His innings pitched (217), wins (18), and ERA (around 2.9) have all been virtually identical, although he did set a new single-season strikeout record with 234.
Those seasons have seen him finish just fourth and sixth in Cy Young voting. Does he have another gear in him that can put him over the top? Based on his postseason performances, not to mention his +900 odds to win, the answer is yes.
Sleeper
Gerrit Cole, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Gerrit Cole has finally emerged as the legitimate ace he was always projected to be. The former No. 1 overall pick went 19-8 last season for the Pirates, with a 2.60 ERA and 2.66 FIP, third-best in all of baseball.
One would think that after such an outstanding season, Cole would be one of the main challengers for the Cy Young. But since he shares a league with the great Kershaw, his odds have been inflated to +2,000. Those odds represent terrific value, though. If Kershaw were to somehow go down with an injury, Cole has all the ability to be one of the main contenders in the NL.
Long Shot
Michael Wacha, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
Michael Wacha was terrific for the Cards last season. With Adam Wainwright sidelined after an Achilles injury, Wacha stepped up to anchor a Cardinals rotation with 17 wins and a 3.38 ERA in 30 starts. However, he didn’t receive any Cy Young love, in part because of his mediocre 3.87 FIP.
Wacha’s going to take a step or two down the rotation with Wainwright’s return, which means he’ll face fewer No. 1 starters and should stand a better chance to win a few more games. For a price of +5,000, Wacha is definitely worth a shot.
Writer’s Prediction
Bumgarner (+900) finally gets the better of Kershaw and scores his first Cy Young.
