The Buffalo Bills have finally showed up for the 2016 season. After two disappointing losses to the Ravens and Jets, the Bills laid the smackdown on a Super Bowl-caliber Cardinals team, 33-18. The Bills are now 1-2 SU and ATS on the season.
The Bills passing game, which was missing top wideout Sammy Watkins (foot), was a non-factor. Tyrod Taylor went just 14-of-25 for 119 yards. But the Bills got all the points they needed care of the running game. Taylor and LeSean McCoy combined for the bulk of their 208 rushing yards and all three of their rushing touchdowns.
The bigger development, though, was the resurgence of the Rex and Rob Ryan-led defense. That unit was finally able to put pressure on the quarterback. They sacked Carson Palmer five times and hit him seven times overall. They forced the terrific Cards offense to five turnovers, including a fumble return for a touchdown.
The Bills have a horrendous record at Foxboro. (Who doesn’t, though?) They are just 1-14 (6-8-1 ATS) in their last 15 visits. However, their combination of defense and strong running game could see them pull off a rare upset against a banged up Pats team.
The Bills D will have the good fortune of facing a Patriots team with dwindling options at quarterback. Jimmy Garoppolo has an injured throwing shoulder; Jacoby Brissett has an injured throwing thumb; and wide receiver Julian Edelman could be called upon as a last resort.
If that Buffalo defense can dial up a similar amount of pressure in Foxboro, the Bills should like their chances of forcing a few more turnovers against whichever limited Pats QB they see.
The Bills should also have a fair bit of success running against a Pats defense which has been unable to completely stop the run. New England’s giving up 4.4 yards per carry, 22nd in the league.
Betting on the New England Patriots
If you haven’t learned by now, let these past three weeks serve as your last reminder: Never count the Bill Belichick and the Patriots out. Down to their third-string rookie quarterback Brissett on a short week, the Pats still thumped a playoff-caliber Texans team, 27-0, on Thursday night to improve to 3-0 SU and ATS this season.
Unsurprisingly, Bill Belichick and his staff deployed the perfect gameplan to put his rookie QB in a position to succeed. They had the good fortune of recovering two Texans kickoff return fumbles, but the Patriots defense was already pretty successful in taking away Houston’s offensive weapons.
The Pats QBs keep getting hurt, with Brissett now a doubt to play due to a thumb injury he suffered against Houston. At this point, though, would you even doubt the Pats coaching staff’s ability to cook up a winning gameplan for wideout Julian Edelman if needed?
Even without much of a passing game, the Patriots can still lean on a ground game that has been very effective running the ball. New England is averaging 150 rushing yards per game through the first three weeks.
Meanwhile, the Pats defense has successfully been able to take away what their opponents do best offensively. The Bills haven’t really had much of a passing game this season apart from some big plays against the Jets. The Pats won’t make those same mistakes, and with Sammy Watkins still hobbled, New England should be able to key in more on the Bills’ running game.
Foxboro has been a fortress for some time now, but especially in the last few years. The Pats are 19-2 (13-6-2 ATS) at home since 2014, and one of those losses was a meaningless Week 17 loss to the Bills in 2014.
Writer’s Prediction
The two offenses are probably a wash at this point, but the Pats have the more consistent defense, the superior head coach, and home-field advantage. The Pats take it, 23-17.
