New England Patriots vs. New York Jets Preview
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford
When: Sunday, November 27, 2016, 4:25 PM ET
Line: New England Patriots (-9) vs. New York Jets (+9); total: 47.0 – view all NFL lines
TV Broadcast: CBS
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Betting on the New England Patriots (-9)
The Patriots (8-2 SU and ATS), who were probably in an unpleasant mood after last week’s frustrating home loss to the Seahawks, took care of business Sunday against the Niners.
It wasn’t the best night for Tom Brady passing-wise (24-for-40, 60-percent completion rate), but he had four touchdowns and no interceptions, raising his TD-INT ratio to an impressive 16-1.
The team’s power back, LeGarrette Blount, had his usual night, bulldozing for 124 yards on 6.5 yards per carry. “Blount force trauma” has been the heart and soul of the team’s run game, accumulating for 67.7 percent of the Pats’ total rushing yards this season (802 of 1,183). He’ll have a decent chance to once again put up big numbers this week, with the Jets defense giving up 262 yards through the ground in their last two games.
New England is only 16th in rushing offense (118.3 per game), but has ran for over 100 yards in seven out of their 10 games this year.
With man beast Rob Gronkowski still questionable (chest), receiver Julian Edelman is again projected to take the spotlight in the passing game. Brady targeted the wideout 17 times on Sunday, connecting eight times for 77 yards and one TD. Keep in mind, though, that the Pats have one of the most unpredictable offensive attacks in the NFL. Three guys are averaging 50-plus receiving yards per game and five different players have led the team in receiving yards in a game this season.
Betting on the New York Jets (+9)
The Jets’ Bryce Petty experiment in Week 10 wasn’t of much help to the team’s disappointing season, as they lost to the offensively-challenged Los Angeles Rams in a low-scoring 9-6 snoozefest. The second-year QB, who was a first-time starter in the NFL and has played sparsely prior to doing so, only had 163 yards (one TD and one INT)
As low as that yardage is, it was actually even inflated by receiver Robby Anderson. If it weren’t for his 52-yard sideline catch, Petty would only have 111, which would’ve brought down the QB’s yards per pass average for the game to a putrid 3.5.
The problem at the position, as you may know, has been all season long. The team’s original starter, Ryan Fitzpatrick, was a disaster – 56.4 completion percentage (worst), 67.6 passer rating (worst), 13 interceptions (most in the NFL), and 220.3 passing ypg (third-fewest among current starters).
Whether it’s Petty or Fitzpatrick that takes the field Sunday, the ground game has to be pretty strong to counter the QBs’ suspect play. Primary back Matt Forte is having serviceable numbers (73.2 ypg, 3.9 ypc, seven touchdowns) and has 95 or more total yards in each of his last five outings.
His backfield partner, pass-catching back Bilal Powell, is providing sparks in the limited chances he’s been given, averaging 6.8 yards per carry (73 total ypg in his last three).
The defense is in for a whirlwind of an aerial attack with the Pats. The Jets D is allowing the sixth-most passing yards per game (260.5) and is sure to be tested heavily by Brady and company.
As for stopping the run, although they are doing a decent job overall – sixth fewest yards allowed per game (85.4) and second-fewest yards allowed per carry (3.5) – the last two games have been atrocious. Against the Dolphins in Week 9, Jay Ajayi ran for 111 yards, and in the following week, the Rams had 125 rushing yards, their second-highest this season.
The Jets are 3-7 this season (3-6-1 ATS).
Writer’s Prediction
The Pats win easily, 30-13.
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