Patriots vs. Falcons Super Bowl LI Betting Preview
Where: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
When: Sunday, February 5, 2017, 6:30 PM ET
Line: Atlanta Falcons (+3) vs. New England Patriots (-3); total: 59.0 – view all NFL lines
TV Broadcast: FOX
Writer’s Pick: Atlanta Falcons (+3)
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Betting on the New England Patriots (-3)
The New England Patriots are holding steady as 3-point favorites for Super Bowl 51 after a week of betting. The Pats have had a relatively comfortable path to the big game, handily beating the Houston Texans (34-16) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (36-17) to go 2-0 ATS.
Unlike the Falcons, the Pats are all too familiar with the big stage of the Super Bowl. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick will be playing in their seventh championship game, and have gone a perfect 4-0 against non-New York Giants opposition.
Brady, a three-time Super Bowl MVP, has been playing like someone who wants a certain commissioner to hand him the Lombardi Trophy. He finished second in the NFL in passer rating, and had a 28-2 TD-INT ratio in the regular season. And in the playoffs, he bounced back from a poor performance against the Texans to torch the Steelers for 384 yards on 76 percent completion with 3 touchdowns.
Despite missing star tight end Rob Gronkowski, Brady is hardly short of receiving weapons. Chris Hogan transformed into Julio Jones with 180 yards and 2 TDs against the Steelers, while Julian Edelman had 118 yards and a touchdown. And as Dion Lewis showed in the divisional round against the Texans, he’s a threat in the passing, receiving, and return game. The Pats shouldn’t have too hard a time scoring in Texas.
Instead, it’ll be the defense that’ll be under pressure to perform. The Pats defense has been much-maligned for most of the season, but its ability to bend but not break has been remarkable. They’ve held eight of their last nine opponents to under 20 points.
Betting on the Atlanta Falcons (+3)
It’s a testament to how impressive the Falcons have been during their playoff run that they’ve been able to draw nearly equal action to the popular Pats. The Falcons have remained 3-point underdogs after one week of betting, and definitely have a chance of continuing the recent trend of underdog Super Bowl wins. The underdog has won six of the last eight Super Bowls straight up.
The Falcons demolished their first two playoff foes, the Seahawks (36-20) and the Packers (44-21), primarily on the strength of Matt Ryan and the passing game. Ryan, the massive -1,200 favorite to win the NFL MVP award, is averaging 365 yards per game while completing over 70 percent of his passes with 7 total touchdowns in two playoff games.
Offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan has been a huge reason for the Falcons’ rise as the most prolific offense in the NFL. Shanahan has transformed an offense which was highly reliant on star receiver Julio Jones, and has turned it into an incredibly-balanced attack. But of course, Jones can still go off like he did against the Packers, where he exploded for nine catches, 180 yards and two touchdowns.
The Pats have a habit of trying to take away a team’s top threat, but that might not work this time around against a Falcons offense that can hurt the Pats with multiple weapons both on the ground and through the air.
Writer’s Prediction
The Falcons (+3) have arguably more talent up and down that offense than the Pats, and Shanahan has just been spot-on with how he’s deployed those pieces. In a game that likely won’t see too many defensive stops, it’s that edge in offense which should see the Falcons prevailing in the end.
Create a betting account now and put some money on the Super Bowl 51 extravaganza!
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