Jacksonville is entering wild card weekend after having lost its final two games of the regular season, finishing the season with a 10-6 straight up and 9-7 against the spread record.
Buffalo is heading into Sunday with a better end to the regular season, having won three of its last four games and completing their campaign with a 9-7 SU and 9-6-1 ATS record. On the road for the season, the Bills went 3-5 SU and 4-4 ATS which is why over 60 percent of TopBet bettors are backing the Bills to cover as 7.5-point dogs. If momentum has anything to say about it, the Bills may not only cover, they may clean up with the upset against the Jaguars.
The health of LeSean McCoy is the big story here. He left the Week 17 game against Miami with an ankle injury. On Monday, ESPN reported that the running back would be a game-time decision to play against Jacksonville. Today (January 4) NFL.com reports that McCoy himself states that “It wasn’t as bad as I thought“. Take that for what you will.
Given that McCoy leads his team in yards gained from scrimmage (1586 yards in the regular season) you can see why Jacksonville remains more than a touchdown favorite in the matchup. Tight end Charles Clay is the next closest player in yards for the Bills, with just 558 in total.
Jacksonville failed to score an offensive TD in their Week 17 season finale against the Titans, which is the only reason Marcus Mariota is in the playoffs (running game be damned). Eight of the Jaguars’ 12 offensive possessions ended in punts, while three resulted in turnovers, and one delivered a field goal.
While the Jags team averaged just 3.3 yards per carry in their final two games of the regular season, they finished with the best running game in the NFL in 2017. This is the playoffs and they will be brining that accolade hard into their Sunday meeting with the folded Bills.
Writer’s Prediction
“It wasn’t as bad as I thought” is a cringe-inducing statement for bettors favoring the Bills in a straight up win. They will lose this game, but if the defense can force a Jags turnover or two they will keep this one closer than expected. Will the D come through? Nope. Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars to win and cover (-7.5).
