The race to the top of the National League Central standings is a tight one, with no team further behind the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers by more than 6.5 games as of Jun. 5. Every game and series counts for all teams in the division, so expect a tense three-game set at Wrigley Field beginning this Friday. The Cardinals and the Cubs are +450 and +150 to win the division, respectively.
Starters: Jack Flaherty (4-3, 3.76 ERA) vs. Cole Hamels (4-2, 3.62 ERA)
Pitching:
Flaherty has made some strides in lowering his ERA over his last two starts. He allowed just two earned runs in five innings of a 7-4 win at home over the Chicago Cubs on Jun. 1 and prior to that, he held the Atlanta Braves scoreless in six innings, but got betrayed by St. Louis’ bullpen in a 3-2 home loss. His other start this year against the Cubs resulted in a 4-0 loss, wherein he gave up three earned runs in 5.2 innings. Hamels tamed the Cardinals’ hitters on Jun. 2, surrendering zero earned runs in 7.2 innings but still got pinned with a loss after a 2-1 defeat in St. Louis. The lefty is 1-0 with a 3.26 ERA in five starts at home this year.
Hitting
Matt Carpenter is 5-for-15 in his career vs. Hamels.
Anthony Rizzo is 7-for-11 with two homers in career vs. Flaherty.
Prediction: Chicago wins, 6-4.
GAME 2
Starters: Adam Wainwright (5-5, 4.34 ERA) vs. Jon Lester (4-4, 3.32 ERA)
Pitching:
Wainwright looked like his old self in his last time out on the mound, as he blanked the Cubs in eight innings of work of a 2-1 home win on Jun. 2. It was a nice retaliatory performance for Wainwright who got rocked for six earned runs in five innings of a 13-5 loss to the Cubs at Wrigley Field back in May. Lester bounced back from an ugly performance in a 9-6 road loss to the Houston Astros in which he allowed seven earned runs in 5.2 innings by holding the Los Angeles Angels down to a run in seven innings of an 8-1 home win on Jun. 3. Lester is 2-2 with a 1.76 ERA in six home starts this season.
Hitting:
Paul Goldschmidt is 6-for-12 with a homer in career vs. Lester.
Addison Russell is 7-for-20 with three doubles in career vs. Wainwright.
Cabrera will make just his second start of the season in this game. He lasted just 3.2 innings in an 11-4 road loss to the Philadelphia Phillies on May 29, when he allowed three earned runs on five hits. Hendricks answered the bell against the hard-hitting Houston Astros lineup in his last start, yielding just an earned run on four hits with seven strikeouts in a 2-1 road win on May 29. Hendricks shut down the Cards during a 9-0 win at home on May 3, giving up just four hits.
Hitting
Marcell Ozuna is 9-for-26 in career vs. Hendricks.
The Cubs have the seventh-best wOBA against left-handed pitching in the majors as of this writing.
Prediction: Chicago wins, 6-3.
Writer’s Overall Series Prediction
Chicago sweeps the Cardinals in this early June series.
