Baseball’s homestretch has officially kicked off, with the teams in the drivers seat pushing for those elusive playoff spots. As we discussed in our analysis of historical trends, generally only teams above .500 after the All-Star generally have a shot at October baseball. And four of them are in the NL Central…
The second half of the season is already underway and by the looks of it, the National League Central Division race will be the tightest of them all. The St. Louis Cardinals are currently tied with the Milwaukee Brewers for the lead with the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Cincinnati Reds just 1 ½ and 2 ½ games behind, respectively.
Read on for the preview and prediction for this hotly-contested NL Central division race as we dissect what’s in store for the second half of the season. While you’re at it, check out our previews of the NL East and AL East.
[sc:MLBArticles ]NL Central Race Odds, Analysis and Prediction
Favorites – St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers
The St. Louis Cardinals continued their surprising run to the top of the NL Central by defeating the LA Dodgers 2-1 in their opening series after the All-Star break. They are now the favorites at +125 to take home the NL Central crown.
[sc:MLB240banner ]The Cardinals won eight of their last 12 games to end the first half with a 52-44 record as they suddenly came withing a game of the faltering Brewers. Key to the Cardinals’ resurgence has been their pitching. In those eight wins before the break, Cardinal pitchers allowed just 18 runs with two of those games being shutouts.
In fact, they are eighth in the majors this season with a 3.39 team ERA, with teams batting just .239 against them which is third in the National League this year.
The Milwaukee Brewers, on the other hand, had a disastrous end to their first half, losing 11 of their last 13 games to enter the break with a 53-43 record. At one point, the Brewers were 19 games over .500 (51-32) as they erected a 6 ½ game lead over their nearest pursuers the Cardinals as they seemed to be destined to pull away from the rest of the division.
One of the reasons behind the Brewers’ great start this season has been their exceptional hitting. They are currently second in the National League when it comes to runs scored with 434 as they posted a team batting average of .257 which is eighth in the majors.
Their hot hitting though suddenly went cold as the Brewers were only able to muster 2.9 runs per game during that bad stretch as they lost some important series matchups with division rivals Cincinnati and St. Louis.
Unfortunately, their bad run of form has continued in the second half of the season with their opening series defeat to the Washington Nationals and are now currently tied with the Cardinals for the top spot in the NL Central. They are priced at +150 to win the division.
High-Value Sleepers – Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pittsburgh Pirates have suddenly found itself in the thick of the division title race once again after sweeping the Colorado Rockies at home to start their second half on the right note. They are just 1 ½ games back of the Cardinals and the Brewers for the NL Central lead and definitely within shouting distance of the division title, a feat for which they are currently priced at +750.
The Pirates rely on their star centerfielder Andrew McCutchen, who is leading the team in batting average at .320. In fact, the Pirates are second in the entire National League when it comes to team batting average at .257 and will have to continue hitting if they want to be able to keep up with their NL Central rivals.
The Cincinnati Reds, on the other hand, are just 2 ½ games back of the leaders at fourth place and are currently priced at +400 to snatch the division crown. The Reds have relied primarily on their pitching this season to keep in pace with their rivals as they are ninth in the entire majors when it comes to team ERA with 3.49 while allowing opposing teams to hit with a measly .234 mark which is third-best in the league.
Leading the Reds’ rotation are Johnny Cueto (10-6, 2.18 ERA) and Alfredo Simon (12-4, 2.74 ERA) and their continued brilliance on the mound is tantamount for the Reds to keep in step with their division mates.
Create a betting account now and see if you can predict who among these four teams will finish top of the NL Central.
Key Player – Adam Wainwright (St. Louis Cardinals)
Leading the 11-time world champions once again in their quest for another NL Central division title is their ace Adam Wainwright who has been superb for the Cardinals this season. In 19 games, the 33-year-old right-hander has posted a 12-4 record with an outstanding ERA of 1.83.
He has pitched 138 innings so far this season, with opposing batters hitting a lowly .201 against him. He has struck out 115 batters this season which is tenth in the National League and will be an integral part of the Cardinals’ campaign to win its 10th NL Central title this year.
Key Series – September 4-7 – St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers
The two teams are currently tied at the top of the NL Central standings and their final meetings at Miller Park could ultimately decide where the NL Central title will reside this season.
Writer’s Prediction
Experience will be the difference as the Cardinals edge past their nearest rivals and win their second consecutive NL Central title.
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