The AFC is getting crowded. 11 teams have five wins or more. One division (the AFC North) has four teams with a .600 or better win percentage.
All that success in their conference means that this divisional tilt between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins is all the more critical to both sides. Both the Dolphins and the Bills sit at 5-4, having lost tight games in Week 10 to push them to the outer edge of the wild card picture, and need to find a way to win in order to stay within striking distance of the New England Patriots, who are looking as good as any team in the league at the moment.
Which of these top-10 defenses will come out on top? Can Kyle Orton and the Bills continue their surprise season, or will Ryan Tannehill and the Fins bounce back from a tough loss against the Lions? Read on for more on what should be one of the best Thursday Night Football matchups of the year and don’t miss our complete coverage of Week 11, including previews of every game on the schedule here.
[sc:Football ]Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Preview and Prediction
Where: Sun Life Stadium, Miami
When: Thursday, November 13, 8:25 PM ET
Line: Buffalo Bills (+5) at Miami Dolphins (-5); total: 42.5 – see all NFL lines
Betting on the Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills (mostly) played well enough to win on Sunday against the Kansas City Chiefs, but sloppiness and poor execution in the red zone hurt them all game long as they lost 17-13 at home. After putting up a turnover ratio of +7 through their first eight games of the season, the Bills fumbled three times, including a Bryce Brown fumble inside the five yard line on Buffalo’s first drive of the first half.
[sc:NFL240banner ]Red zone efficiency continues to kill the Bills this season. They failed to score a touchdown on any of their four trips to the red zone against Kansas City, which will only drop what was already the fourth-worst red zone offense in the league coming into Week 10, scoring a major on 47% of their trips.
The Bills are now 2-4 against AFC opponents.
Even at 5-4, Buffalo has put together a better season than most expected. To keep it going, they will likely need to get healthy on offense. After losing Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller to injuries in Week 8, Boobie Dixon and Bryce Brown have stepped in but been less effective than the first-stringers they replaced.
Jackson was almost ready to go against the Chiefs and should be back in on Thursday while Spiller will remain on the sidelines. Perhaps even more significant, though, is the health of rookie wideout Sammy Watkins. Watkins has been a revelation for Buffalo this season, particularly since Orton took over for E.J. Manuel as quarterback. However, after straining his groin in practice heading into the game against Kansas City, Watkins was relatively ineffective, catching four of 10 targets for just 27 yards.
If Watkins and Jackson can come back at 100% for this game, this Bills offense will be in a much better position to back up the play of their elite defense, which has allowed only 53 points in its last three games.
The Bills are 4-5 against the spread this season.
Betting on the Miami Dolphins
It’s Week 11 and we’re still learning just exactly what kind of team this Miami Dolphins club is. After beating the Patriots in Week 1, Miami had generally been outplayed by non-bottom-feeder competition. That is, until the Fins put up one of the most dominant wins of the year in Week 9, a 37-0 beat down of the Chargers, only to then lose a nail-biter to the 6-2 Lions last Sunday.
This game against the Bills should go a long way towards clarifying things. Miami lost these teams’ first meeting of the season, a 29-10 loss in Week 2 that highlighted the improvements Buffalo has made this season. That said, this game will take place in a very different atmosphere. The Week 2 game happened in Buffalo amidst news the team had secured new ownership, and after a touching tribute to their former owner, the late Ralph Wilson.
This time around, the Dolphins play the hosts, and should benefit from the play of their young quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who has dramatically improved his game over his last two starts. After throwing for 288 yards and three touchdowns against the Chargers, Tannehill managed another 207 with a score and a pick against the Lions’ secondary, which ranks third in the league with 212.1 yards allowed per game.
One of the two teams that’s ranks higher than the Lions in pass defense? These same Dolphins, at 210.8 yards per game. The quality of Miami’s secondary shon against Detroit, one of the best passing offenses in the league. That both Golden Tate and Calvin Johnson broke 100 yards in this one doesn’t do justice to the play of cornerback Brent Grimes, who broke up numerous passes in key situations, and looks very capable of staying with any receiver in the league. Watkins, be warned.
Ultimately, whichever team is able to put up even 20 points in this game will likely win as both Buffalo and Miami rank in the top five in terms of points against.
Writer’s Prediction
Tannehill and the Dolphins continue to figure things out on the offense while a depleted Buffalo offense can’t keep up. Miami (-5) covers. Bet on this or any other game now by creating a betting account and getting into all the action as the NFL drives into its second half.
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