Barring a collapse of epic proportions, FC Barcelona are going through to the quarterfinals of the 2016 UEFA Champions League. Two Lionel Messi goals in the first leg have given the Blaugrana a massive advantage over Arsenal ahead of the second leg in the Camp Nou. Will the defending champions stroll through as expected, or can the Gunners give them a fight?
Get the lowdown on this Champions League second leg showdown with our preview below. Meanwhile, don’t forget to check out our preview of Wednesday’s other crucial Champions League tie, Bayern Munich vs. Juventus.
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Barcelona vs. Arsenal Preview
Where: Camp Nou, Barcelona, Spain
When: Wednesday, March 16, 2:45 PM ET
Line: Barcelona -580 vs. Arsenal +815, tie +575; total 3.5 – view all UEFA Champions League lines
Betting on Barcelona
As their -8,000 odds to go through indicate, it’ll take some sort of miracle for Barcelona to squander a 2-0 advantage in the second leg. Barca would need to lose 3-0, or by two goals and Arsenal scoring more than three goals to crash out at home.
Barca have simply been unstoppable at home this season. Consider that in 14 La Liga home games, Barca have won 13, drawn one, and lost exactly none. They scored 48 goals in those 14 games–a total exceeded by only Real Madrid–and conceded just 10. And in their three Champions League group games at home, they won all three and scored 11 times.
After scoring twice against Arsenal in the first leg, Lionel Messi added six more goals in his next three La Liga matches. He’s also scored in nine of his last 10 games at home.
Barca have scored fewer than two goals just twice all season, and with Arsenal’s injury concerns at the back, they should be able to get the goals that puts this tie away.
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Betting on Arsenal
The injury bug couldn’t have bitten Arsenal at the worse time. First it was goalie Petr Cech, who suffered a calf strain in the Gunners’ 2-1 loss to Swansea. Then, central defenders Gabriel and Per Mertesacker, as well as midfielder Aaron Ramsey all went down in their 4-0 FA Cup win at Hull.
While Gabriel and Mertesacker have been upgraded to probable to play at the Camp Nou, Cech and Ramsey are more long-term casualties, and both will be sorely missed.
Nevertheless, the Gunners’ mission in Spain is pretty straightforward: score at least three goals to stand any chance of going through. Olivier Giroud and Theo Walcott both scored two goals apiece in their win against Hull, which should do their confidence a lot of good heading into the second leg.
However, it remains to be seen just how they plan to stop Barca’s irresistible frontline from scoring even more goals.
It’s also unclear just how seriously manager Arsene Wenger will take the second leg. Aside from the fact that the Gunners have very long odds at +2,000 to pull off the epic comeback, they also have a crucial Premier League game against Everton which they need to win to keep their fading title hopes alive just over 48 hours later.
That game, coupled with the Gunners’ recent injury problems, could force Wenger into fielding a significantly weaker side in Barcelona.
Writer’s Prediction
Barcelona (-580) finish the job with a comfortable 3-1 win over Arsenal.
