The Atlanta Falcons are flying high atop the NFC South at 5-0. Their fifth win wasn’t pretty, but the Falcons, led by breakout star Devonta Freeman, just got by the Washington Redskins in overtime to remain perfect on the year. The New Orleans Saints, on the other hand, are 1-4 for the second year running after another putrid performance against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Can the Falcons march into the Superdome and score a sixth-straight win at the expense of the struggling Saints? Read on for our preview of this AFC South showdown. Meanwhile, check out Week 6’s other can’t miss primetime matchups, with the Patriots vs. Colts and Giants vs. Eagles.
[sc:Football ]Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints Preview
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans
When: Thursday, October 15, 8:25 PM ET
Line: Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) at New Orleans Saints (+3.5); total 51.0 – view all NFL lines
TV Broadcast: CBS/NFL Network
Betting on the Atlanta Falcons (5-0)
The Atlanta Falcons are still perfect, but their performance – particularly on offense – was nowhere near perfect against Washington on Sunday. They needed a pick-six in overtime just to beat the Redskins at home, 25-19.
[sc:NFL240banner ]Quarterback Matt Ryan was held to just 24-of-42 passing (57 percent) for 254 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions, while star wideout Julio Jones (five catches for 67 yards) was limited for the second-straight game.
On the bright side, though, running back Devonta Freeman continues to prove he is absolutely for real. The second-year back recorded a new career-high with 153 rushing yards and scored another touchdown. He also added 44 yards through the air. Through the last three games, Freeman is averaging a mind-boggling 180 yards from scrimmage and has scored seven touchdowns.
The Falcons defense was also very impressive, limiting the Redskins to 270 total yards of offense and causing two turnovers.
After seeing DeMarco Murray break out against New Orleans with 120 yards from scrimmage, it’s scary to think what an in-form Freeman can do against the Saints’ subpar defense. Freeman’s insane workload should also be eased by the return of rookie Tevin Coleman, who was playing well as the featured back prior to injuring his ribs.
Ryan could be primed for a bounce-back game against the Saints secondary. Last season against New Orleans, Ryan completed an insane 73 percent of his passes and averaged 325 passing yards.
However, the health of Jones will be a concern. Jones, who has been dealing with a bad toe and hamstring, has a total of nine catches and 105 receiving yards in his last two games. He had seven catches for over 100 yards in each of his two games against New Orleans last season.
Unsurprisingly, the Falcons won both games, including a 30-14 win at the Superdome. Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings against its NFC South rival.
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Betting on the New Orleans Saints (1-4)
The New Orleans Saints are spiraling into the abyss. After their miserable 39-17 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, a team that could not put points on the board against anyone through the first four weeks, the Saints are now 1-4 and find themselves at the bottom of the NFC South.
The offense, which has for years been the most reliable part of this team, has not played well all season long and it simply fell apart in the second half against the Eagles. Drew Brees threw for 335 yards and two touchdowns, but negated all of that by turning the ball over three times (two fumbles and an interception), all in the second half.
Through five games, the Saints are averaging a mediocre 20 points per game.
Meanwhile, the defense, which ranked dead last in the NFL in defensive DVOA through four weeks, won’t rise any higher after coughing up 519 total yards of offense against Philly. Their already suspect secondary might get even weaker after two of their nickel corners – Damian Swann and Kyle Wilson – both sustained injuries.
There’s definitely still talent in this team. Brees, even at less than 100 percent, is an above average quarterback and he has two targets in Willie Snead and Brandin Cooks, who each topped 100 receiving yards against the Eagles.
However, the defense doesn’t give this team any margin for error, and their chances of stopping a very explosive Falcons offense don’t figure to be very good. Moreover, it’s hard to see the Saints offense scoring enough points to keep pace, especially as it goes against a much-improved Falcons defense.
Prior to their win against the Brandon Weeden-led Dallas Cowboys, the Saints had surprisingly gone 0-6 (SU and ATS) in their last six games at the Superdome.
Writer’s Prediction
Freeman runs wild once again while the Falcons D slows down Brees and the Saints offense just enough for Atlanta (-3.5) to get the 27-20 win.
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