Oklahoma made its case for inclusion in the College Football Playoff this past weekend as it knocked off Big 12 rival Baylor in Waco. What sort of effect (if any) will that Sooners win have over the playoff picture and the other big bowl games?
Let’s get a full breakdown of the New Year’s Six bowl games heading into Week 12 and project which teams end up in which bowl games. And for more Week 12 college football action, check out our previews of Mississippi State vs. Arkansas and TCU vs. Oklahoma.
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New Year’s Six Bowl Game Predictions – Week 12
Peach Bowl – Michigan State vs. North Carolina
[sc:NCAA240banner ]Unless Michigan State pulls off the big upset in Columbus against Ohio State this weekend (read our preview of that game here) the Spartans will end the season with two losses. Their overall resume should still be good enough to make them an enticing at-large bid, though.
They could very well get matched up with the North Carolina Tar Heels, who have put themselves right in the discussion for New Year’s with very impressive wins against Duke and Miami. Don’t discount them to flat-out win the ACC, either. The Tar Heels are +300 to win the conference against heavy favorite Clemson.
Fiesta Bowl – Baylor vs. Houston
Baylor lost its chance to make the playoff with that loss to Oklahoma, but still has a chance to make up for it this weekend at undefeated Oklahoma State. (Check out our preview of that game here.) A road win against an undefeated Cowboys team should be able to propel the Bears to an at-large bid on New Year’s.
They should be inserted in a very exciting Fiesta Bowl matchup with the Houston Cougars, who escaped by the skin of their teeth against Memphis but managed to keep their perfect record – and their hopes of a New Year’s Six bowl game as the Group of Five rep – intact. With their win against Memphis, the Cougars are now -110 favorites to claim the AAC title.
Rose Bowl – Stanford vs. Iowa
Stanford is most likely out of the playoff picture after it lost to Oregon, but it’s still in a pretty decent position in the Pac-12, especially after seeing its main competitor Utah lose to Arizona. The Cardinal are -175 to win the conference and be its representative for the Rose Bowl.
Meanwhile, Iowa is still on course to head into the Big Ten title game undefeated. The Hawkeyes have gotten a lot of love from the playoff committee, but they need to beat Ohio State to make the top four, which is unlikely at best. Nevertheless, a Rose Bowl appearance as the Big Ten proxy still awaits the high-flying Hawkeyes.
Sugar Bowl – Oklahoma vs. Florida
Even with a big road win over Baylor, that very bad loss over Texas still looms large over the Sooners. It’s certainly much worse than losing to Clemson, which means the Sooners could get passed over by the committee in favor of Notre Dame if both teams win out.
Oklahoma might very well have to settle for the Sugar Bowl, where Florida now has the inside track on grabbing the SEC’s spot after LSU dropped its second game in a row against Arkansas.
Orange Bowl (College Football Playoff Semifinal) – Clemson vs. Notre Dame
Clemson remains idle at No. 1 after handling business at Syracuse. If the Tigers win out as expected – they’re -400 to win the ACC – they might just find Notre Dame waiting in the Orange Bowl.
The Irish have gotten a lot of love from the committee for the first couple weeks in the rankings, and it’s hard to see that changing if they win out and beat Stanford on the road.
Cotton Bowl (College Football Playoff Semifinal) –Alabama vs. Ohio State
No change in the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds to meet in the Cotton Bowl. There’s a good chance both Alabama and Ohio State win out, in which case the rematch from last year’s semifinal will be set.
National Championship Game – Alabama vs. Clemson
Last time we checked, the two are still the two best teams in the country and remain on a collision course for the title game. After a slew of very impressive performances, the Crimson Tide have actually overtaken Clemson as the overall favorites at +240 to win the national championship.
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