The annual matchup between in-state rivals Houston Texans and Dallas Cowboys known as the “Governor’s Cup” is upon us in Week 5. Though the Cowboys hold a 25-19 series edge, the teams met in the preseason and the Texans won, marking its first victory since 2010. This game is going to see a lot of betting action from the Lone Star State, but everyone across the U.S.A. is looking to capitalize given that the spread is tight (3.5-points, at press) on this big game.
NFL Futures currently price the Dallas Cowboys at +7500 to win Super Bowl 53, +3500 to win the NFC Championship, and +375 to win the NFC East Division. The Texans, are given +6000 to win the big dance, +2500 to win the AFC Championship, and +800 to win the AFC South Division.
The Cowboys are playing like a .500 team so far this season, and their record speaks to it. They improved to 2-0 at home with a 26-24 win over the Detroit Lions in Week 4, but even that looked sketchy as Dallas blew a 20-10 fourth-quarter lead to keep the game too close for comfort for Prescott and company. Still, Prescott easily had his best game of the season, throwing for 255 yards and two touchdowns. Brett Maher’s 38-yard field goal as time expired sealed the deal for the win.
Ezekiel Elliott also put up impressive numbers, rushing for 152 yards, with four catches for 88 receiving yards and a touchdown. That feat made Elliott the first player to garner over 150 yards rushing and over 80 yards receiving in the same game since Michael Bush (Oakland) back in 2011. Elliott now has a strong league lead in rushing and will be looking to extend that further against a Texans’ defensive line which allowed 478 yards in Week 4.
The Cowboys managed its Week 4 win playing without one of their best defensive players, linebacker Sean Lee, who suffered a recent hamstring injury. Going into Week 5, Lee is uncertain. If he plays, look for this writer’s prediction (see below) to shift further in the Cowboy’s direction.
On the season thus far, the Cowboys are both 0-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) when playing on the road.
Betting on the Houston Texans (1-3)
Rumblings from behind the scenes had the Texans firing head coach Bill O’Brien if Houston lost to Indianapolis on Sunday in Week 4. That didn’t happen as the Texans squeaked out a 37-34 overtime win, which was in-part due to a very weird call by the Colts’ Frank Reich whose decision to go for broke on the fourth down at his own 43 would lead to Ka’imi Fairbairn’s game-winning 37-yard field goal. The Texans’ QB Watson threw for 375 yards and two TDs as Houston snapped their nine-game losing streak. Starting receiver Will Fuller left with a hamstring injury and is day to day as we head into Sunday. While the head coach’s job is safe for one more week, you can feel the dissension in the ranks, and O’Brien without a doubt will be distracted going into the Governor’s Cup.
Heading into this Week 5 game, the Texans are both 0-1 SU and ATS when playing from the comforts of home.
Writer’s Prediction
To be honest, this writer is not sure why the 1-3 (barely) Texans are favored in the game, even though they’re playing at home. Cowboys will win 23-17 and cover the spread. You’re going to want to jump all over this one bettors!
