Florida’s fate is in its own hands. After beating South Carolina 20-7, the Gators (7-2, 4-5 ATS) can now clinch the SEC East title if they win their final conference game against LSU. However, that game, which was supposed to be a Florida home game but was rescheduled due to Hurricane Matthew, will now be played in Baton Rouge. Florida is 0-3 ATS on the road this season.
Austin Appleby got the start at quarterback for the injured Luke De Rio against South Carolina and looked quite effective. Appleby completed 17 of his 21 passes for 201 yards and two touchdowns. Appleby has made three starts this season, the most noteworthy of which was his 296-yard, three-TD performance in a losing effort against Tennessee.
The Gators offense, either with Appleby or Del Rio at QB, doesn’t inspire too much confidence, though. Florida is 11th in the conference in points per game (26) and 12th in total yards per game (378).
However, the Florida defense is certainly good enough to keep this game competitive. Their run defense, in particular, will be crucial against a run-heavy LSU attack. The Gators are allowing just 3.09 yards per carry this season, 2nd in the conference.
After getting shut out by the best team in the country, Alabama, the LSU Tigers got back on track with another dominant win, 38-10, over Arkansas. The Tigers improved to 4-1 (both straight up and against the spread) under interim head coach Ed Orgeron. Their four wins came by an average of 29 points.
It speaks to Bama’s dominance that they were able to silence a terrific Tigers running game featuring Leonard Fournette and Derrius Guice. The two went for 360 yards and 5 touchdowns against the Razorbacks, and had 341 yards with 4 TDs against Ole Miss. However, Fournette is a slight doubt to feature against Florida after injuring his ankle against Arkansas.
LSU doesn’t have much of a passing game with Danny Etling at quarterback, but it should be encouraged with what happened in Florida’s last road game. Arkansas ran all over the Gators (223 yards, 2 TDs), and also limited the Gators ground game to 12 yards on 14 carries en route to a 31-10 Hogs win.
LSU has a great defense which can similarly shut the Florida offense down. The Tigers are ranked 3rd in the conference in points allowed (13.9), 3rd in run defense, and 5th in pass defense with just 5 passing TDs allowed (fewest in the SEC).
LSU has won its last three home games against Florida, and has gone 3-0 ATS.
