France hasn’t played like it for much of the tournament, but it finally unleashed all that attacking potential in a 5-2 quarterfinal win over Iceland. Antoine Griezmann, who is currently Euro 2016’s leading scorer with four goals, has flourished since playing in the middle off of Olivier Giroud. Giroud and Dimitri Payet both have three goals apiece, while midfielder Paul Pogba has also grown stronger as the tournament has worn on.
Germany at full strength has the talent to match France, but Die Mannschaft will be without main striker Mario Gomez for the remainder of the Euros after suffering a hamstring injury against Italy. That position has been a problem for manager Joachim Low. Mario Gotze struggled mightily in that position during the first two games. Meanwhile, Thomas Muller and is having a very quiet tournament so far and is still goalless in his career at the Euros.
Germany will be missing some key pieces on defense. Starting center-back Mats Hummels is suspended, while defensive midfielder Sami Khedira is unlikely to feature after an early injury against Italy. But despite those absentees, they should still have the edge defensively against France. The Germans have capable replacements that can fill the void. They also have a bit more tactical astuteness about them, which is a big reason why they have yet to concede a single goal from open play all tournament long.
On the other side, defense remains the main weakness for the French side. Defensive midfielder N’Golo Kante is back from suspension, but with the 4-2-3-1 formation working so well against Iceland, manager Didier Deschamps could be unlikely to revert to the 4-3-3 and accommodate Kante. The unexperienced Samuel Umtiti, who started in place of the suspended Adil Rami at center-back, could also be a big liability if he retains his place.
Writer’s Prediction: Germany (+175) edges out France, 2-1.
