Louisville Cardinals vs. Virginia Cavaliers Betting Preview
Where: John Paul Jones Arena — Charlottesville, VA
When: Monday, February 6, 2017 – 6:00 PM ET
Line: Louisville Cardinals (+6) vs. Virginia Cavaliers (-6); total: 122.0 – view all NCAA Basketball lines
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Betting on Louisville Cardinals (19-4, 7-3 ACC)
The sixth-ranked Cardinals will be coming in as winners of three straight games, where they have an average winning margin of 34.3 points. In the most recent victory, they cruised past the Boston College Eagles, 90-67.
With number two scorer Quentin Snider out (hip), Louisville’s other key options – Donovan Mitchell (15 PPG) and Deng Adel (11.1 PPG) – continued to shoulder increased scoring duties, as each contributed 19 points. They were joined by defensive specialist Mangok Mathiang in piling in points, chipping in a season-high 16 – he’s now netting 12.8 points and 7.8 rebounds per game in his last four.
Led by Mitchell, Adel, and Mathiang, who collectively shot 21-for-31 from the floor, the Cards had their second-best field goal shooting on the year (57.6 percent).
The team isn’t wowing anyone with their offense – 72nd in points (78.5 PPG) and 31st in offensive efficiency – but it’s good enough to be competitive against anyone. They’re also compensating it really well with their monster defense.
Kenpom.com rates Louisville as the best defense in the nation, thanks to being seventh overall in blocks (2nd among ranked teams) 12th fewest points allowed (62.3 PPG), and fourth in opponents’ shooting percentage (37.8). Additionally, 15 of the 23 teams they have faced this year shot below 40 percent.
The Cards are 5-2 in their last seven games on the road (6-1 ATS).
Betting on the Virginia Cavaliers (17-5, 7-3 ACC)
Although their defense failed them hard this past Saturday (lost 66-62 to Syracuse), where they gave up 44 points to the Orange in the second half after only allowing 22 in the first, Virginia should still be seen as a group of elite defenders.
They are still the best scoring D in the nation (54 points allowed per game), and they are right there with Louisville in defensive efficiency — Kenpom.com currently lists the Cavaliers third in the category.
Through their great team effort, they are also permitting the third-fewest rebounds (28 RPG) and assists (9.5 APG) overall.
Over on offense, the same things cannot be said. Although they are 17th in the offensive efficiency rankings, their 68.9 PPG is the lowest among ranked teams, and there are no reliable scorers on the roster. The number one guy on offense, London Perrantes, is only putting up 11.9 PPG, and he’s the only Cavalier to average double digit points.
Considering that Virignia is number nine in the country, we can’t really decide if it’s appalling or impressive.
Virginia is 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight games.
Writer’s Prediction
Louisville (+6) wins, 75-66.
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