The No. 8 UCF Knights are undefeated this season and a higher-ranked team than the No. 11 LSU Tigers, but it’s the latter who are the favorites to win at the Playstation Bowl in Glendale this coming Tuesday. The sportsbook may favor LSU by 7.5-points, but can the Knights conclude a campaign with a spotless record for the second season in a row? Or will the Tigers bring home a hardware back to Baton Rouge?
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Betting Preview for the LSU Tigers vs UCF Knights College Football Fiesta Bowl Game on January 1 2019
Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale
When: Tuesday, January 1, 2019, 1:00 PM ET
Line: LSU Tigers (-7.5) vs UCF Knights (+7.5) – view all 2018 NCAAF lines
TV Broadcast: ESPN
Betting on the LSU Tigers (9-3 Overall / 5-3 Conference)
The Tigers are probably still smoking weeks after a historic and insane 74-72 seven-overtime road loss to the Texas A&M Aggies on Nov. 25. They are hoping that they could carry that kind of robust offense into the Fiesta Bowl, though, it’s going to be easier said than done, considering the quality of UCF’s defense. In any case, LSU will look to establish its own tempo early. The Tigers are 32nd in the nation with 31.8 points per game and 30th overall in scoring defense with 22.8 points allowed per game. Speaking of defense, the Tigers’ secondary is going to play a key role in the UCF game. The Tigers have one of the best pass defense in the SEC with only 206.8 passing yards allowed per game, but perhaps the true telling factor for their stop unit is the conference-leading 16 interceptions they had in the regular season. Offensively, the Tigers are eyeing to take advantage of UCF’s leaky run defense that surrendered 232.1 rushing yards per game in the season. Conversely, the Tigers put up 173.8 rushing yards per contest.
The Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last game away from Baton Rouge.
Betting on the UCF Knights (12-0 Overall / 8-0 Conference)
The Knights are entered the bowl season with an unblemished 12-0 SU record but it was not good enough to get them a place in the College Football Playoff, largely because they barely played anyone. Except for the No. 24 Cincinnati Bearcats, whom the Knights beat on Nov. 18 at home, 38-13, UCF did not beat any ranked opponent. In their last game, the Knights had to claw their way back to beat the Memphis Tigers, 56-41, and win the AAC title. One concern for the Knights in the upcoming LSU game is whether freshman quarterback Darriel Mack Jr. is going to be good enough to hold it together for his team. Mack was thrusted into the starting gig under center after starting quarterback McKenzie Milton injured his knee in the final game of the regular season. Mack, however, showed he could handle the job when he put up 348 passing yards and two touchdowns with zero interceptions on 19-of-27 completions in the Memphis game.
The Knights, who are third in the nation with a plus-1.3 turnover margin per game, are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
Writer’s Prediction
LSU wins, 31-23.
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