The Denver Broncos were handed a surprise 22-7 defeat to the St. Louis Rams on Sunday. They take on another constricting pass defense when they welcome the Miami Dolphins to Mile High Stadium. Will the Dolphins catch the Broncos in one of their most vulnerable states? Or will Denver bounce back big time to give their home fans a treat? Read on as we break down this pivotal AFC showdown.
An intriguing AFC West showdown is on the horizon when the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Oakland Raiders for Thursday Night Football. Read our preview of that game here. Also don’t forget to check out our preview for Monday night’s Ravens vs. Saints.
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Miami Dolphins vs. Denver Broncos Preview
Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver
When: Sunday, November 23, 4:25 PM ET
Line: Miami Dolphins (+8) at Denver Broncos (-8); total 50.0 – view all NFL lines
Betting on the Miami Dolphins
Quarterback Ryan Tannehill took five sacks, but stayed composed enough to lead the Dolphins on a furious 19-0 run in the final 18 minutes of regulation, resulting in a 22-9 blowout of their AFC East rivals, the Buffalo Bills. The Dolphins are now 4-1 SU/ATS in their last five games.
Tannehill went 26 for 34 for 240 yards and two touchdowns against the Bills. He’ll need to bring the same composure he showed in Week 11 if he wishes to lead the Dolphins to a victory against Denver. The Broncos have a vaunted pass rush (27 sacks this season), which will constantly put the Miami quarterback under pressure.
[sc:NFL240banner ]Running back Lamar Miller rushed for 86 yards on 15 carries against Buffalo, his first game of over 80 rushing yards since Week 3. Miller should be up for a big game, especially after Denver’s top-ranked run defense looked vulnerable against the Rams. The Broncos allowed 113 yards against St. Louis’ rookie running back Tre Mason, the most rushing yards they allowed an opposing running back this season.
On the other side of the ball, the Dolphins’ pass defense was excellent, particularly in their blitzing. The Dolphins blitzed Buffalo’s Kyle Orton on 14 of his 42 dropbacks, limiting the Buffalo quarterback to 5-for-13 for 47 yards and a sack on those plays. Defensive end Cameron Wake leads the way in this regard with a team-high 8.5 sacks this season.
Establishing the blitz will be crucial to force Denver quarterback Peyton Manning to commit errors, especially with the Broncos missing two of their top three receivers.
The total has gone under in Miami’s last five games.
Broncos quarterback Manning went 34 for 54 for 389 yards with two interceptions and was held to a touchdown pass to Emmanuel Sanders in the second quarter, their only score in a shock 22-7 loss against the St. Louis Rams. To rub salt in Manning’s wounds, two of his top three scoring options, tight end Julius Thomas and Sanders, left the game with injuries. Thomas and Sanders have scored 18 of Denver’s 29 passing touchdowns this season.
Manning still has wide receiver Demaryius Thomas, though. Thomas caught seven passes for 103 yards, his seventh-consecutive 100-yard game. With only one of his top three receivers, Manning may find himself struggling against Miami’s pass defense, which is one of the stingiest in the league (208 yards allowed per game).
Meanwhile, Manning’s turnover troubles—he has thrown two interceptions in each of his last three games—may continue especially with Miami cornerback Brent Grimes possibly shadowing Thomas throughout the game. Grimes has five interceptions this season, the second-most in the league.
If the Broncos struggle to find the end zone often, they’ll need to prevent Miami from scoring as well. The Broncos have allowed 90 percent of opponent red zone attempts to end in touchdowns over their last three games. However, they may be able to force some stops against an offensively challenged Miami team which has only scored touchdowns in 35.29 percent of their red zone trips over their past three games.
Denver’s pass rush should be especially effective in disrupting Miami’s offense. Broncos pass rush duo of DeMarcus Ware (eight sacks) and Von Miller (nine sacks) should be able to find their way past the Dolphins offensive line, which has allowed 25 sacks this season.
The Broncos have won their last five home games.
Writer’s Prediction
The Broncos win, but the Dolphins manage to keep this close enough to cover -8 if Denver is forced to run with a limited receiving corps.
