It’s a must-win game for the No. 14 Michigan Wolverines if they want to keep their hopes of winning Big Ten East alive. But they’ll need a little help from rival No. 13 Michigan State, who’ll be in a blockbuster matchup against No. 2 Ohio State.
The Wolverines face the Penn State Nittany Lions, who also happen to be near the top of Big Ten East with a 4-2 conference record. Who takes this crucial divisional matchup in the Big Ten? Read on as we take a look at everything you need to know ahead of this matchup.
Check out some of college football’s biggest games in Week 12 with our complete previews for Baylor vs. Oklahoma State and Memphis vs. Temple.
[sc:NCAAFArticles ]Michigan Wolverines vs. Penn State Nittany Lions Preview
Where: Beaver Stadium, University Park
When: Saturday, November 21, 12:00 PM ET
Line: Michigan Wolverines (-4) at Penn State Nittany Lions (+4) – view all NCAA Football lines
TV Broadcast: ABC
Betting on the Michigan Wolverines (8-2, 5-1 Big Ten)
The Michigan Wolverines survived a 48-41 shootout against the Indiana Hoosiers on Saturday. They rode the hot hand of quarterback Jake Rudock, who passed for 440 yards and six touchdowns. He had never thrown for more than three touchdowns in his career.
[sc:NCAA240banner ]Rudock may struggle for an encore performance. Penn State has the Big Ten’s best passing defense, allowing just 159 yards per game. Rudock may revert to his earlier performances of struggling to air out the ball. He passed for under 200 yards in seven of his 10 starts this season. The Nittany Lions have also allowed the second-least touchdown passes this season, which should limit Rudock from scoring.
If the Wolverines struggle to air out the ball with Rudock, then they’ll need their rushing offense to gain plenty of ground. Lead running back De’Veon Smith has struggled to top 73 yards in his last five games. He’s rushed for a total of 251 yards and just one score on 63 carries. Another less-than-stellar performance may not cut it against Penn State, who has allowed opposing running backs to rush for just 3.8 yards per carry.
The Wolverines’ offense won’t be under much pressure to perform. After all, they have the second-best defense in the nation. Michigan allows just 236.5 total yards of offense per game. Senior defensive linemen Willie Henry and Chris Wormley have been solid in the front seven. They’re Michigan’s top two pass-rushers with six and four sacks respectively.
Henry and Wormley should be nightmares to contain against Penn State’s sketchy offensive line. The Nittany Lions have allowed the most sacks in the conference with 33.
The Wolverines are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against Penn State.
Betting on the Penn State Nittany Lions (7-3, 4-2 Big Ten)
The Penn State Nittany Lions also have one of the top defenses in the Big Ten. They’ve been excellent in forcing turnovers, ranking third in the conference with 19. The Lions have the best pass-rush in the Big Ten with 42 sacks this season. They may have to rely on their defense to get them back on the win column after losing a heartbreaker against Northwestern 23-21 in Week 9.
Senior defensive lineman Carl Nassib has been a beast with a nation-high 15.5 sacks this season. Defensive lineman Austin Johnson and linebacker Brandon Bell have been solid in their own rights with5.5 and 4.5 sacks respectively. Having this much talent in the front seven should help Penn State penetrate a solid Michigan offensive line, which has allowed just 14 sacks this season.
The Lions aren’t as talented on offense, though. Quarterback Christian Hackenberg is solid with 1,992 yards with 13 touchdowns and three interceptions. But his receiving corps is rather unimpressive. Chris Godwin has been the go-to target with a team-high 808 yards receiving and three touchdowns. DaeSeaon Hamilton has been a distant second with 426 yards, albeit with a team-high five scores.
Hackenberg will need to get used to passing under pressure. As mentioned above, Penn State’s offensive line has been the worst in the conference having allowed 33 sacks thus far. Michigan also happens to have a very strong passing defense, allowing just 165.5 yards per game. Hackenberg may find himself throwing into coverage, resulting in plenty of incompletions or turnovers.
Having the passing game contributing to the offense will be critical. Running back Saquon Barkley (836 yards and seven touchdowns on 133 carries) may struggle to find the holes to exploit against a Michigan front seven, which is allowing a Big Ten-low 3.09 yards per carry.
The Lions have won six straight home games.
Writer’s Prediction
The Wolverines’ pass rush antagonizes Hackenberg several times en route to a dominant victory. Take Michigan to cover -4. Create a betting account now and dive into the college football season as it gets even more interesting.
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