How about them Toronto Raptors? After falling to a 0-2 hole to start the Eastern Conference Finals, the Raptors (-225 to win the series) managed to win three-straight games to put themselves a win away from the 2019 NBA Finals stage, where the Golden State Warriors await a challenger. But while on the surface, the odds of a Toronto win at home when up 3-2 in the series may look good, the statistical probability of taking four games in a row against Milwaukee does not. Will the Raptors finish the series up at home this weekend? Or will the Bucks (+175) force a Game 7?
Betting on the Milwaukee Bucks (60-22 Regular Season)
The pressure is clearly bigger for the Bucks heading into Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Now, they will have to win on the road or it’s going to be a disappointing travel back home with not a game to prepare for. The Bucks’ offense was stymied by Toronto in Game 5’s 105-99 loss, which was harder to take for Milwaukee when considering the fact that Eric Bledsoe finally had a good offensive game, scoring a series-high 20 points. But it was Khris Middleton who turned into a ghost this time around, as the swingman coughed up six points on a salty 2-for-9 shooting. Giannis Antetokounmpo had 24 points, but he was bottled up good by Toronto, especially in the final quarter, when he only had six points and two turnovers. Milwaukee needs all hands on deck in Toronto. The team could use some more aggressiveness in order to get free throws after getting outshot 13 times from the charity stripe by Toronto in Game 5.
The Bucks are 6-4 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 road games.
Betting on the Toronto Raptors (58-24 Regular Season)
The Raptors were circling down the drain in the second half of Game 5, but got huge shots in the arm from Kawhi Leonard, Pascal Siakam, and Fred VanVleet. Leonard powered the Raptors with 35 points on 11-for-25 shooting, Siakam had 14 points, 13 rebounds, while also playing tremendous defense, and VanVleet went bonkers with 21 points and seven 3-pointers. The three-ball kept Toronto afloat in the game, as the team had 18 3-pointers to just 10 by Milwaukee. Toronto used a shorter rotation in Game 5, with eight players seeing playing time, though, head coach Nick Nurse can’t be satisfied with what Danny Green have shown. Green laid an egg in 16 minutes on the floor, but he could be in for a bounce back. The Raptors’ defense is clicking and affecting the usually smooth flow of things on Milwaukee’s attack. Forcing turnovers and making Antetokounmpo uncomfortable will be big keys to success for Toronto, which forced Milwaukee to commit 11 turnovers while scoring 19 points off of those errors in Game 5.
The over is 4-1 in Toronto’s last five home games.
