Unless Adrian Peterson busts out another 2,000+ yard season for the Minnesota Vikings this season, the NFC North looks to be a three-horse race between the Green Bay Packers, Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions.
As discussed in our team previews of the Packers, Bears and Lions, the three are among the most prolific passing offenses in the NFL, but their poor defenses are also quite capable to making their opponents equally as prolific. Read on as we tackle the major subplots in what should be a very interesting and competitive NFC North.
[sc:Football ]2014 NFC North Preview
Can the Packers stay healthy?
Green Bay was the only division winner last season with less than 10 wins, as they stumbled to an 8-7-1 record, their worst mark since 2008. The Packers suffered a rash of major injuries on both sides of the ball–a seemingly annual occurrence for this franchise–which prevented them from winning a fourth-straight division title more comfortably.
[sc:NFL240banner ]Key receivers Randall Cobb and Jermichael Finley both missed 11 games, while linebacker Clay Matthews (five games) and cornerback Casey Hayward (13 games) also missed significant time. But of course, the biggest loss was quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who missed almost half the season with a collarbone injury.
The Packers were somehow still able to win the NFC North last season despite those injuries and a sub-standard defense. Veteran pass rusher Julius Peppers and rookie safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix figure to make last year’s awful defense a little more respectable this year. They’re +900 to win the Super Bowl, but health will play a major part in whether Titletown enjoys another title this season.
Will the Bears and Lions mount a challenge?
The Bears and Lions couldn’t capitalize on the Packers’ injury woes last year, but even with a healthy Rodgers, both teams figure to give Green Bay a run for its money in the North this season after making offseason improvements.
Chicago is +275 to win the division in in Year 2 under head coach Marc Trestman, who turned a talented offense into one of the best in the NFL in 2013. Quarterback Jay Cutler completed 63.1 percent of his throws a season ago, his best completion percentage in six years. A large portion of those throws went to his Pro Bowl receiving duo, Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery.
Detroit has an equally fearsome aerial attack led by the QB-WR combo of Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson. The Lions suffered a horrific collapse late last season, which cost Jim Schwartz his job. In steps new head coach Jim Caldwell to lead a talented team priced at +325 to top the North.
However, both teams’ defenses don’t figure to be that much better than Green Bay’s. The Bears’ linebackers and secondary have issues, while the Lions’ cornerbacks may be the worst in the NFL. The onus will then be on Cutler and Stafford to play at or near Rodgers’ level in order to claim the title.
Key Player – Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers)
How valuable is Aaron Rodgers to Green Bay? When he was healthy last season, the Packers went 6-2; when he went down with injury, they plummeted to just 2-5-1. Rodgers was on course for over 5,000 yards and over 30 touchdowns, which would’ve been top five in the league, had he played the full 16 games.
Despite losing Finley and receiver James Jones in the offseason, Rodgers will have Cobb back from injury, as well as a resurgent running game led by reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year Eddie Lacy. And if Green Bay’s defense continues its struggles, Rodgers will be called upon to keep the Packers in the game.
Key Game – Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions
If Caldwell has the desired effect in Detroit this season, the Lions could head into Green Bay at the end of the year with a chance to win the NFC North. But they would rather not let it come to the last game of the season against the Packers. That’s because the Lions haven’t come away from Lambeau with a win since 1991 – a streak of 23 consecutive games.
Writer’s Prediction
A healthy Aaron Rodgers is all the Packers (-135) need to win the NFC North for the fourth year in a row with a 12-4 SU record. The Bears finish second at 10-6 SU while the Lions lag behind at 7-9.
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