The St. Louis Rams and Washington Redskins had two of the NFL’s top upset wins last week. The Rams topped the previously undefeated Cardinals, while the Redskins topped the free-falling Eagles. The two teams will go on the road against undefeated squads in Week 5, which makes them savory sleeper picks to once again cause a major upset.
Let’s check out why those teams will pull off the win against the spread (and also why they won’t) in our top five sleeper picks and predictions for Week 5. Also, don’t forget to check out our previews of Week 5’s primetime games, starting with Thursday’s Colts vs. Texans and Sunday’s 49ers vs. Giants.
[sc:Football ]
Top 5 NFL Week 5 Sleepers Predictions
St. Louis Rams (+10) at Green Bay Packers (Sun, Oct. 11, 1:00 PM ET)
[sc:NFL240banner ]Why the Rams will win: The Rams have shown that they get up for big competition. They’ve already beaten the Seahawks (34-31 at home) and the previously 4-0 Cardinals (24-22) on the road. Everyone knows about their outstanding pass rush, which will put at least some pressure on the usually unflappable Aaron Rodgers.
However, the emergence of explosive weapons such as Todd Gurley (146 yards on 19 carries against Arizona) and Tavon Austin (116 yards from scrimmage, two receiving TDs) are the biggest reason why they could give the Packers a game in Lambeau.
Why the Rams won’t win: If there’s one quarterback that’s seemingly immune to pressure, it’s Rodgers. Rodgers’s ability to scramble out of tight situations exposes the Rams secondary. Oh, and the Packers are pretty good at Lambeau (11 straight wins and counting).
Writer’s Prediction: The Packers win again at Lambeau, but the Rams (+10) keep it close, 34-27.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sun, Oct. 11, 1:00 PM ET)
Why the Jaguars will win: Sure, the Jags have an 11-game road losing streak going, but they’re showing signs of life. They almost took down the Colts (albeit without Andrew Luck) at Indy to improve to 4-2-1 ATS in their last seven road games dating back to last season.
Blake Bortles went without an interception for the second time in three games, while Jameis Winston has taken the mantle of being the next rookie turnover machine (seven picks in four games). If there’s ever a game where the Jags can finally end their long losing skid, it’s at Tampa.
Why the Jaguars won’t win: Winston learns his lesson and cleans up his game, while Bortles shows the young rookie how throwing a horrendous multi-interception game is done.
Writer’s Prediction: The Jags (+3) end their road losing skid with a 24-17 win.
Why the Browns will win: Josh McCown had a higher quarterback rating in Week 4 than Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, and Philip Rivers. He threw for 356 yards and two touchdowns, showing why it’s not completely crazy that he’s starting over Johnny Manziel.
While the Ravens finally got off the shneid last Thursday, they could’ve (and probably should’ve) lost that game had it not been for the Steelers’ atrocious special teams. The Ravens’ secondary is still highly suspect, as are their receiving targets outside of Steve Smith Sr., who might not even play against the Browns. Those deficiencies make it tough to back them to cover a spread nearing a full touchdown against anyone.
Why the Browns won’t win: The Browns still have a pretty awful run defense, and after breaking out for 150 rushing yards against the Steelers, Justin Forsett burns the Browns with another big game.
Writer’s Prediction: The Browns (+6.5) straight up beat the Ravens, 24-21.
Washington Redskins (+7.5) at Atlanta Falcons (Sun, Oct. 11, 1:00 PM ET)
Why the Redskins will win: Kirk Cousins, at times this season, has looked like a pretty competent NFL quarterback, or one that’s at least better than Ryan Mallett. The ‘Skins can also run the ball pretty effectively, which can hurt a Falcons defense that still struggles at stopping the run.
Atlanta’s 48 points looks great, but it was aided by a plus-4 turnover margin. The Redskins defense has also improved markedly from last season, which should help keep the Falcons within striking distance.
Why the Redskins won’t win: The Falcons are actually as good as their 4-0 record indicates. Meanwhile, Cousins is apparently not as good as he’s looked in spots this season. He gives up a couple more turnovers, which the Falcons’ highly efficient offense converts into a lot of points.
Writer’s Prediction: The Falcons win, but the Redskins (+7.5) remain within a touchdown, 27-21.
New Orleans Saints (+5.5) at Philadelphia Eagles (Sun, Oct. 11, 1:00 PM ET)
Why the Saints will win: Drew Brees and the Saints might not be what they once were offensively, but neither are the Eagles. Philly’s offense has been downright disappointing this year, and favoring them to cover anything over a field goal is a big mistake. Even a limited Brees is very dangerous, as he showed in the Saints’ overtime win over the Cowboys.
Why the Saints won’t win: This is finally the game when Philly starts to put it all together on offense. Meanwhile, their solid defense takes the Saints offense off its game.
Writer’s Prediction: The Saints (+5.5) straight up beat the Eagles, 27-24.
