Johnny Manziel- and Ryan Mallett/Brian Hoyer-led teams are favored by more than a field goal? Can it be true? Why yes it is, and it’ll all go down in Week 3, as the Browns and Texans enter as favorites against the Raiders and Buccaneers, respectively. With all due respect to those quarterbacks, their opponents look like tasty sleepers for the week not only to cover the spread, but also to win outright.
Let’s break down those very intriguing matchups, as well as the rest of the top five best sleeper picks to win (against the spread) for Week 3 of the NFL season. We weigh the pros and cons of each pick before concluding with a bold prediction.
[sc:NFL240banner ]Why the Bengals will win: The Bengals have been dominant on both sides of the line of scrimmage, and they continue to do so even against a very solid Ravens team. A.J. Green also continues to torment a Ravens secondary that gave up over 100 yards to both Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper. Green has topped 130 receiving yards in two of his last three games against Baltimore.
Why the Bengals will lose: After an 0-2 start, the Ravens will come out with a renewed sense of urgency at home (in other words: desperation). The Bengals are unable to run the ball effectively against the Ravens front, which prompts Andy Dalton to throw more and to commit his first turnover(s) of the season.
Writer’s Prediction: The Bengals (+3) beat the Ravens, 21-17.
Why the Bills will win: With the Dolphins still unable to run the football, the Bills and their dominant defense put all sorts of pressure on Ryan Tannehill and force him to some back-breaking turnovers. Meanwhile, Tyrod Taylor, LeSean McCoy and co. take advantage of a Dolphins defense in some disarray to put enough points on the board on the road.
Why the Bills will lose: The Taylor that threw three costly interceptions against New England returns to cough up more turnovers, which Tannehill and the Dolphins turn into points.
Writer’s Prediction: The Bills (+3) beat the Dolphins, 21-14.
Why the Raiders will win: The Raiders continue throwing the ball as effectively as they did in their 37-33 upset win over the Ravens. Meanwhile, the pass rush duo of Khalil Mack and Aldon Smith pressures Johnny Manziel (or Josh McCown) into some familiar mistakes.
Why the Raiders will lose: Carr can’t get started as he gets pressured all night long by a Browns defense that sacked Marcus Mariota seven times. Johnny Football then delivers more big plays on a shorthanded Raiders secondary.
Writer’s Prediction: The Raiders (+4) pull off a big 28-14 road win in Cleveland.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6.5) at Houston Texans (Sun, Sept. 27, 1:00 PM ET)
Why the Bucs will win: Jameis Winston is a markedly more talented quarterback than either of Houston’s options, Brian Hoyer or Ryan Mallett. With wideout Mike Evans closer to 100 percent after battling a bad hamstring for the first few weeks, Winston makes enough plays on offense, while the talented Bucs defense keeps them well within striking distance.
Why the Bucs will lose: J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney blast through the Bucs’ O-line and force the turnover-prone Winston into some very costly errors.
Writer’s Prediction: Watt, Clowney and the rest of the Texans defense leads the team to a 27-24 win, but the Bucs (+6.5) cover.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+14) at New England Patriots (Sun, Sept. 27, 1:00 PM ET)
Why the Jags will win: The Patriots continue their inability to cover double-digit spreads. They’re 2-8 against the spread in the last three years as double-digit favorites. The Pats establish another big lead early in the game, allowing Blake Bortles and Allen Robinson to put points up in garbage time, much like how the Bills scored 19 points in the fourth quarter.
Why the Jags will lose: After a rare interception-free game against Miami, Bortles resumes normal service and throws a pick or two against the Pats D. Regular service is also delivered by the Pats offense as it runs riot at home.
Writer’s Prediction: The Jags lose 34-24, but cover as 14-point underdogs.
