Duke has been one big letdown during the Big Dance in recent years. The Blue Devils crashed and burned in the first round as a No. 3 seed in 2012 and also as a No. 2 last year. They’re a No. 1 this year, though, and Wooden Award candidate Jahlil Okafor isn’t about to let another first round flameout happen on his watch.
Does Robert Morris, fresh off its big First Four win over North Florida, stand much of a chance to go one round further? Read on for our preview of this Round of 64 contest.
Get a better feel for the other 1 vs. 16 matchups with our previews of Kentucky vs. Hampton, Villanova vs. Lafayette and Wisconsin vs. Coastal Carolina.
[sc:MarchMadness ]March Madness No. 1 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 16 Robert Morris Colonials Preview
Where: Time Warner Cable Arena, Charlotte
When: Friday, March 20, 7:10 PM ET
Line: Duke Blue Devils vs. Robert Morris Colonials – view all March Madness lines
Betting on the Duke Blue Devils
Duke didn’t quite have enough to come away with the ACC conference tournament as it lost, 74-64, to Notre Dame in the semifinals. But the Blue Devils did do enough in the eyes of the selection committee to lock down an all-important No. 1 seed. Duke went 29-4 overall and 15-3 in ACC play with big road wins over Wisconsin, Louisville, Virginia and North Carolina.
[sc:NCAAB240banner ]While Duke has infamously failed to get past a No. 14 and No. 15 seed in past years, it stands a very good chance of preserving the No. 1 seed’s 100 percent all-time win rate in the tournament against No. 16’s.
The biggest reason is its magnificent big man, Jahlil Okafor (17.7 points and nine rebounds per game). For the third time this season, the fab freshman dominated Notre Dame with 28 points on 13-of-18 shooting (72 percent). The Irish simply don’t have the bodies to bang inside with Okafor, who averaged 23 points on 68 percent shooting in three games against them.
Okafor still shouldn’t see any sort of resistance in the paint against a similarly small Robert Morris team that relies on a 6-8, 215 lb. freshman to be its “big man”. Okafor and the Blue Devils (19th in the nation in offensive rebound rate) should dominate the offensive glass against the Colonials, who have allowed almost 13 offensive boards per game this season.
Duke has gone 14-0 in its last 14 games against non-Notre Dame opposition, going 9-4-1 against the spread.
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Betting on the Robert Morris Colonials
Robert Morris finished Northeast Conference play with a three-game winning streak to finish 12-6, good for the No. 2 seed in the conference tournament. The Colonials then banged out another three wins – including a 66-63 win over 15-3 St. Francis in the final – to win the tournament and a spot at one of the two No. 16 seed First Four matchups.
The Colonials bounced back from a 14-point second half deficit to beat North Florida, 81-77, in that First Four game and won the right to face Duke. They got three great performances from their top three scorers – Rodney Pryor (15.2 points per game), Marcquise Reed (14.8) and Lucky Jones (14.3) – who combined for 60 of the team’s 81 points.
Robert Morris’ game is predicated upon turnover creation. On the season, they stole the ball on 12.7 percent of their opponents’ possessions, good for 12th in the nation. The Colonials came up with a whopping 19 against North Florida to fuel their comeback.
Being aggressive and forcing Duke to a bunch of turnovers will be the Colonials’ main blueprint to upsetting the Blue Devils. Apart from that, though, it’s tough to see them stopping Duke’s high-powered offense, which averages 80.6 points per game (fourth in the nation). They are ranked 170th in adjusted defensive efficiency, the fourth-lowest among tournament teams.
Robert Morris faced two other ACC teams on the road during its nonconference schedule. The Colonials lost 103-59 to North Carolina and 64-57 to Clemson.
Writer’s Prediction
Duke easily disposes of Robert Morris, 85-60.
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