Duke’s quest for a fifth national championship is off to a solid start after trouncing the Robert Morris Colonials by 29 points in the round of 64 on Friday night. The Blue Devils will look to sustain the momentum from that huge victory this coming Sunday when they take on the San Diego State Aztecs who are fresh off a second-round win over the St. John’s Red Storm.
Who will grab the edge in this pivotal round-of-32 matchup? Read on below for a breakdown of this South Regional showdown and while you’re at it, you can check out our third-round previews of Wisconsin vs. Oregon and Gonzaga vs. Iowa.
[sc:MarchMadness ]March Madness No. 1 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 8 San Diego State Aztecs Preview
Where: Time Warner Cable Arena, Charlotte
When: Sunday, March 22, 2:40 PM ET
Line: Duke Blue Devils (-9.5) vs. San Diego State Aztecs (+9.5); total: 129.0 – view all March Madness lines
Betting on the Duke Blue Devils
Top-seeded Duke stormed into the third round of the NCAA tournament with an emphatic 85-56 win over Robert Morris on Friday night. It was a dominating performance by the Blue Devils who became the third school to win 100 NCAA Tournament games, joining Kentucky and North Carolina.
[sc:NCAAB240banner ]The Blue Devils got off to a hot start, hitting their first seven baskets and 12 of their first 15 shots. Duke was sizzling from the field the entire game, nailing 34 of its 54 field goal attempts for an incredible 63 percent clip. The Blue Devils were ruthless as well on the defensive end as they held Robert Morris to an atrocious 24 of 66 (36.4%) field goal shooting.
Quinn Cook and Jahlil Okafor led the way for the Blue Devils in this game with 22 and 21 points respectively. Okafor’s impact was there for all to see as he made mincemeat of the Robert Morris defense. With Okafor on the court, the Blue Devils outscored the Colonials by 21 points and made 20 of their 26 field goal attempts.
Okafor has been a vital cog in Duke’s success this season, leading the team in scoring (17.7 PPG), rebounds (9.0 RPG) and blocks (1.4 BPG). Make no mistake about it, though, the Blue Devils are not just a one-man team. Three other players are also averaging in double-figures for Duke this season, namely Cook (15.7 PPG), Justise Winslow (12.3 PPG) and Tyus Jones (11.6 PPG).
Thanks to their balanced attack, the Blue Devils have become the fourth-highest scoring team in the nation today, averaging a whopping 80.6 points per game. They have their work cut out for them, however, in the next round as they’ll face one of the best defensive teams in the country in San Diego State.
The Aztecs are second in scoring defense this season, allowing a measly 53.5 points per game. Even with those numbers though, the Blue Devils still fancy their chances against San Diego State because of their excellent ball movement.
Duke had a total of 28 assists against Robert Morris, the most in an NCAA tournament game in its school history. The Blue Devils are 21st this season in assists, averaging 15.5 dimes per game.
Duke is 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games.
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Betting on the San Diego State Aztecs
San Diego State booked a ticket to the third round of the national tournament with a convincing 76-64 win over No. 9 St. John’s on Friday night. The Aztecs were in complete control of the ballgame as they never trailed in the second half. With the victory, San Diego State improved its record in NCAA tournament play to 6-4 since 2011.
Key to San Diego State’s victory against St. John’s was their terrific outside shooting. The Aztecs were red-hot from the three-point area, going 9 of 22 from beyond the arc. Dwayne Polee II, in particular, was sizzling from the perimeter, draining five of his seven three-point attempts en route to 15 points. It was a satisfying performance for Polee who once played for St. John’s early in his career.
If they are to stand a chance against Duke in the round of 32, the Aztecs need to shoot the lights out from the perimeter once again. With Okafor manning the paint, San Diego State’s forays inside the shaded area will be few and far between. The Aztecs need to bury their long bombs on Sunday to keep the Duke defense honest.
But if San Diego is to challenge Duke’s interior defense, it’ll be through forwards J.J. O’Brien and Winston Shepard. This frontcourt duo has been instrumental to the Aztecs’ success this season, averaging a combined 21.2 points and 10.5 rebounds per game.
O’Brien and Shepard showed their worth against St. John’s, combining for 25 points and nine rebounds. More than their offense though, it will be their work on the defensive end that will take primary importance as the Aztecs need to devise a plan to stop the talented Jahlil Okafor.
The Aztecs will take comfort, though, in the fact that they are an elite defensive team. They are fourth in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, allowing just 88.7 points per 100 possessions this season. If they can turn Sunday’s game into a low-scoring contest, the Aztecs will have a great chance of scoring an upset.
The Aztecs are 8-2 SU and 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games.
Writer’s Prediction
Duke (-9.5) seals its 28th Sweet Sixteen appearance with a 73-62 victory.
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