The No. 16 Providence Friars and No. 4 Villanova Wildcats meet for the first time since their Big East conference tournament semifinal showdown last season, which the Wildcats won. The Friars have been shaky in conference play, while it’s been smooth sailing for Villanova. Will Providence be the first Big East team to beat the Wildcats this season?
Read on for more about this game. You can also check out our preview of the SEC’s big Oklahoma vs. Baylor showdown.
Betting on the Providence Friars (16-3, 4-2 Big East)
[sc:NCAAB240banner ]If the Friars need a sermon, it should be about how they should stop their addiction to chucking up threes. By now, they should’ve come to the realization that they’re not going to win games on jumpers and outside shots, as they’re shooting just 32.5 percent on two-point jumpers and a conference worst 30.7% on three-point shots.
That said, the Friars somehow found a way to beat Butler 71-68 on Tuesday despite shooting 42.1% from the field and 22.7% from the three-point area. The key to that win was the Friars’ aggressiveness on offense that resulted into them going 18-for-25 at the free throw line. On the flipside, the Bulldogs went just 9-for-15 at the charity stripe.
Up against Villanova’s fierce defense, Providence will have to choose its shots carefully and exploit mismatches. Challenging the Wildcats’ interior defense is going to be difficult but if the Friars could fish fouls and put someone like Villanova’s Daniel Ochefu in foul trouble early, the driving lane will be a bit wider for Kris Dunn and company. Providence opponents commit 19.9 personal fouls per game, but that has increased to 21.3 over the past three games.
Dunn is looking to bounce back from a subpar performance in the Butler game, wherein he scored just nine points, but contributed in other categories with five rebounds and seven assists. Dunn is averaging 17.2 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 6.7 assists per game on the season. Forward Ben Bentil, meanwhile, leads the team in points and rebounds with 19.2 and 7.9, respectively.
Providence is 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in its last six road games.
Betting on the Villanova Wildcats (17-2, 7-0 Big East)
This game smells bad for Providence. Villanova, which is coming off a nail-biter 72-71 win over Seton Hall on Wednesday, appears to have the defense to stop Kris Dunn and the Friars later tonight.
As mentioned earlier, Villanova’s defense is among the stingiest in the nation, one that allows just 60.6 points per game. Considering Providence’s shooting troubles, the Wildcats’ tight D will likely just worsen the shape of the Friars’ offense.
Per Kenpom.com, Villanova is fourth overall in adjusted defensive efficiency with 90.1 points allowed per 100 possessions by opponents. Still, Villanova can’t take the Friars’ offense for granted—not with the talented Dunn orchestrating and creating plays for his team.
On offense, the Wildcats will look to breakdown Providence’s sturdy defense that ranks 64th in the nation with 66.6 points surrendered per game.
Josh Hart, who has blossomed into the team’s best scorer after spending time as a sixth-man in previous seasons, leads Villanova’s balanced offense with 15.5 points per game. Hart had a team-high 18 points on 7-for-10 shooting with three three-pointers in Villanova’s 63-61 win over Providence last year.
The Wildcats average 75.6 PPG with five players putting up at least 9.8 PPG.
Going back to 2014, Villanova is 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS in five meetings with the Friars.
