The Seahawks finally ended their two-game winless run with a hard-fought 31-25 home win over the Buffalo Bills and improved to 5-2-1 (3-5 ATS) on the season.
Russell Wilson had arguably his best game of the year. He went 20-of-26 for 282 yards and two touchdowns. Both of those touchdowns were caught one-handed by Jimmy Graham, who led the way with eight catches for 103 yards.
Wilson seems to be recovered from the knee injury he suffered early in the season. He looked much more comfortable moving in and out of the pocket, and even scored his first rushing touchdown of the year.
Even with a struggling running game which could only muster 33 yards in 12 attempts against Buffalo, the Seahawks offense should be in good hands with Wilson finally moving like he’s accustomed to. The Pats pass rush has been close to nonexistent this season, so Wilson likely won’t find himself under as much pressure as usual.
Surprisingly, though, defense seems to be the bigger concern for the Seahawks heading into this potential Super Bowl matchup. They’ve now allowed their opponents to score on 10 of their last 13 possessions. That recent slump has coincided with Michael Bennett’s absence, which has greatly reduced the pass rush’s effectiveness. If the Seahawks D can’t put Tom Brady under any sort of pressure, they will be sitting ducks as the Pats pick them apart.
The Pats have remained untouchable with Tom Brady at the helm. They scored another convincing 41-25 win against the Buffalo Bills prior to their bye. In the four games Brady has played, the Pats are averaging 34 points. They’re 4-0 against the spread, and have won those games by an average of 16.3 points.
Brady is also benefiting from a fully healthy Rob Gronkowski. Gronk has averaged 118 receiving yards with Brady at quarterback, and has caught a touchdown in three-straight games.
The Pats will catch the Seahawks at a good time. The usually shutdown Seattle defense has had a lot of trouble on third down in recent weeks. They’ve allowed the Saints and Bills to go a combined 21-of-32 on third down.
The Pats are one of the very best in the NFL at keeping the chains moving. They’re fourth in third-down conversion at 47.2 percent. They haven’t had too much trouble moving the ball against a full-strength Seahawks defense (see: Super Bowl XLIX, where Brady went for 328 with 4 TDs), and they should be even more effective against Seattle’s struggling, shorthanded unit.
Much has been made of the Pats’ decision to trade linebacker Jamie Collins, but the bye should have given Bill Belichick sufficient time to get his defense ready. Unsurprisingly, Belichick has a terrific record after the bye, going 12-4 during his time in New England.
Writer’s Prediction
The Pats just have too many things going for them. Brady’s playing lights out. They’re coming off a bye. They’ll be at home. The Seahawks defense is struggling. All signs point to another New England (-7.5) win over Seattle, 35-27.
