Texas vs. Oklahoma Red River Showdown Preview
Where: Cotton Bowl – Dallas, Texas
When: Saturday, October 8, 12:00 NN ET
Line: Texas Longhorns (+10.5) vs. Oklahoma Sooners (-10.5) – view all NCAA Football odds and lines
TV Broadcast: FOX Sports 1
Writer’s Pick: Texas Longhorns (+10.5)
Betting on the Texas Longhorns (+10.5)
Head coach Charlie Strong could very well be coaching for his job when he leads his Texas Longhorns into this year’s Red River Showdown. The Longhorns are having another rough season under Strong, and are now 2-2 after back-to-back road losses at Cal (50-43) and Oklahoma State (49-31). Even their one “signature” win over then-No. 10 Notre Dame in Week 1 doesn’t look so signature now given how far the Irish have fallen.
However, don’t put too much stock in Texas’ recent losing streak. Remember, the Longhorns were riding a similar skid – with losses to Cal, Oklahoma State, and TCU, who smoked the Longhorns, 50-7 – ahead of last year’s Red River Showdown, which they won, 24-17, as 16.5-point underdogs. Texas is 2-0 ATS against Oklahoma under Strong.
After his team’s recent defensive struggles, Strong has now taken over defensive play-calling duties from coordinator Vance Bedford. Look for a bit of improvement from that unit after the change, if only because it’s hard to see them getting any worse.
They may not be able to get too many stops, but the Texas offense has the weapons to put enough points on the board to stay within striking distance of the Sooners. The Longhorns gashed Oklahoma for 313 yards in last year’s win, but they should have a bit more balance now on offense.
Freshman quarterback Shane Buechele has proven at times this season that he can throw a good deep ball, and going long has been a reliable way to get to the Sooners. Oklahoma has allowed seven passes of 40-plus yards this season, tied for 11th-most in the country. The Sooners are also surrendering a 160 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks, 7th-highest in the country.
Betting on the Oklahoma Sooners (-10.5)
Oklahoma may be 2-2 and already out of the College Football Playoff race, but let’s put that record into proper context. Their two losses have come against potential playoff teams – Houston and Ohio State – and they are coming off a big 52-46 road win over TCU.
The Sooners offense finally found the balance it had when it made that run to the College Football Playoff semifinal last season. Baker Mayfield was very efficient through the air, going 23-of-30 for 274 yards and two touchdowns, while the running game had 260 rushing yards and five TDs.
Last year, Oklahoma needed that loss to Texas to finally commit to establishing the run. This year, though, the Sooners could look to turn the tables on Texas by pounding the ball, which can keep the explosive Texas offense off the field and wear out an already suspect Longhorns defense. The Sooners dominated the possession time against TCU, 35-25.
The Texas defense has been a total sieve this season, giving up 49.5 points to Power 5 foes as well as the third-highest passer rating in the country. The Sooners haven’t been much better, but you’d think they can get a few timely stops against a freshman quarterback.
The Oklahoma front has also proven capable of stopping the run this season. It held both Houston and TCU to well under 100 rushing yards and just 2.2 yards per carry.
Writer’s Prediction
Charlie Strong once again finds a way to make life tougher than expected for Oklahoma. The Longhorns (+10.5) still lose – let’s call it 44-37 – but they cover the spread at the Cotton Bowl.
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