Quick brush up: predicting a team’s win total means trying to call how many wins they’ll ring up during their 162-game Major League Baseball season, relative to the “total” set by the bookmaker. You are either betting that a team will win more than the total (and go “over”) or less than the total (thus hitting the “under”).
[sc:MLB240banner ]Accurately predicting MLB regular season win totals is challenging, but also very lucrative. Teams’ win totals vary greatly in baseball, and a team like the Boston Red Sox could easily go from winning 69 games in one season to winning 97 in the next, as they did in 2012 and 2013.
It may be challenging, but it’s far from impossible, especially with these helpful tips to guide you along the way. Here are five tips to help you bet your way to a bigger bank roll come October.
Top 5 Tips for Betting on MLB Baseball Win Totals
1. Find possible regression teams
A key concept used in the world of baseball analytics is the principle of regression to the mean. It means that after putting up an extraordinary result, like a very good or very bad season record, a team or player will likely regress toward the “mean,” or average result, they are capable of, over another similar period of competition.
With that in mind, the Washington Nationals — two years removed from winning 98 games and the NL East crown — look like a good candidate to go over 88.5 wins, after putting up an 86-win 2012 season.
2. Study the team’s offseason
Key roster moves should also be weighed when determining whether a team will exceed or fall short of last season’s performance. The loss/addition of a new pitcher or big bat can go a long way in shaping a team’s fortunes.
The New York Yankees certainly hope signing the bats of Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran, as well as pitcher Masahiro Tanaka, can offset the major loss of second baseman Robinson Cano. The Yankees’ over/under is 86.5 wins; they won 85 games last year.
3. Scout the division
To understand a MLB team’s chance of winning, you have to assess the other teams in their division, as divisional play comprises almost half of each team’s schedule each season.
The Atlanta Braves, for example, put up the second most wins in MLB thanks to a great record within their weak division. With the Mets, Phillies and Marlins all projected to lose over 85 games again this year, the Braves should once again feast on the NL East, and go over their line of 87.5 wins this year.
4. Bet on proven winners
Barring any significant change in the roster, past seasons are often good indicators of future performance. If a team has established a track record of success, it’s not unreasonable to expect more of the same.
For this reason the Tampa Bay Rays, who’ve kept ace David Price and have won 90 or more games for four straight seasons, are a good bet to go over 88 wins this season.
5. Review expert prognostications
If you want the Moneyball-style, sabermetrics approach to the totals, reputable baseball analytics sites like FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus provide very educated season projections using hardcore statistics and mathematics.
Both sites’ projection models love the Dodgers and project them to have the MLB’s best record this season, so it may be a safe bet to take the Dodgers to cruise over 93.5 wins.
Take your new tips to the bank and bet on MLB win totals and futures at TopBet, America’s best online sportsbook.
