Welcome to the ho ho ho holiday edition of the EPL picks column. That time-honored Premier League tradition wherein 20 games will be packed into just four hectic days during the holiday period is finally here once again. With that many games in such a short span of time, weird things can (and often do) come as a result. What out-of-the-ordinary outcomes will make their way into this year’s festivities? Let’s find out with our weekly preview of the upcoming matchdays.
As always, you can expect some unique insight and analysis of the biggest and most interesting matchups, along with some bold predictions and a juicy upset to boot. But please bear in mind that these are merely personal opinions of the writer and do not in any way reflect the thoughts or actual picks of Top Bet sportsbook or its oddsmakers.
Speaking of picks, prepare for the final week of the NFL regular season with our complete NFL Week 17 picks. With that out of the way, on to the EPL picks!
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Top EPL Picks for Week 17
Game of the Week – Chelsea vs. West Ham (Fri, Dec. 26, 7:45 AM ET)
Line: West Ham +718 at Chelsea -357, draw +381; total 3.0 – view all EPL lines
The schedule spat out quite the Christmas lineup for the title favorites, Chelsea. First up, they’ve got a Christmas ham of a home game (very juicy!) against West Ham, followed up by a trip to Southampton just two days later (more on that game below).
[sc:Soccer240banner ]The West Ham game figures to be the biggest threat to the Blues’ 100 percent home record (8-0-0, 20 goals scored, just three conceded) since Arsenal way back in October. The Hammers are now five games unbeaten (four wins and a draw) and are knocking on the door of the top three.
But the Blues are playing in particularly imperious form and no less than their manager Jose Mourinho praised their performance in a 2-0 away win at Stoke. It’s easier to please the Grinch on Christmas than Mourinho, so you know he’s got to be pretty happy with how his team played. If it’s good enough for The Special One, it’s good enough for me.
Brad’s Bold Prediction: 2-0 to Chelsea. Take the Blues -1.5 for some added value.
Southampton vs. Chelsea (Sun, Dec. 28, 9:05 AM ET)
Finally, Southampton brought an end to their seemingly interminable slump with an impressive 3-0 home win over Everton. But after the brief respite of Crystal Palace on Boxing Day, the Saints will need to endure another gauntlet of top-flight opposition, beginning with leaders Chelsea.
To be fair, Southampton didn’t really get outplayed too badly in their earlier run-ins with the big boys. Man City thrashed them 3-0 at home but they remained reasonably competitive for most of that game. And they arguably should’ve taken at least a point from each of their encounters with Man United and Arsenal.
Despite losses to the two Manchester Clubs, I still think the Saints are a very formidable team, especially at home. They’ll have (on paper) the much easier Boxing Day fixture, which should keep them relatively fresh for the Chelsea game. And after all those setbacks, I think manager Ronald Koeman will have learned from his mistakes and adjust accordingly against Chelsea.
Brad’s Bold Prediction: This one ends in a 1-1 draw.
Lock of the Week – Arsenal vs. QPR (Fri, Dec. 26, 12:30 PM ET)
Line: QPR +896 at Arsenal -480, draw +446; total 3.0 – view all EPL lines
Arsene Wenger and his Arsenal side got just what they wanted for Christmas: a home game against the worst away team in the league, Queens Park Rangers.
Despite QPR showing signs of life in recent weeks – they’ve reeled off three wins in their last five games – they’ve been doing it at home. But on the road, they’ve been absolutely abysmal. They’re the anti-Chelsea in that they’ve lost all eight games with just three goals scored and 20 conceded.
I love Arsenal here because they’re finally getting healthy, they’re absolutely stacked up front and they just keep going forward. But because they’re price of -480 to win has no value, I recommend hitting up the total to go over 3.0 goals. Arsenal will attack and score their goals, while they’re just shaky enough at the back to let one slip through. Save the cash you had set aside to buy that ugly sweater and lock this game up in instead.
Brad’s Bold Prediction: 3-1 to the Arsenal. Lock it in.
Tottenham vs. Manchester United (Sun, Dec. 28, 7:00 AM ET)
Stoke over Arsenal. Sunderland over Newcastle. I think I’m getting pretty good at spotting particular upsets, won’t you agree? This week, my spidey upset sense is tingling toward Tottenham taking down Man United at White Hart Lane. Sound the alarm.
*Best League in the Wooorld!! Upset Alert!*
United proved in their 1-1 draw against 10-man Aston Villa that as much as their recent six-game winning run made them look like they’ve turned the corner, they’re still far from the finished product. This is especially true away from home, where they are now just 2-4-2 on the season.
I admit it’s a little tough trusting a schizophrenic Tottenham team that already has four home losses this season, but they do have the talent to turn United over. It also helps that they’ve finally found a striker who can actually score goals in Harry Kane (three goals in his last three games) to match up against a United defense that hasn’t kept a clean sheet away from home since late August.
It might take a couple swigs of eggnog to rack up the courage, but I strongly suggest taking a long look at Tottenham here.
Brad’s Bold Prediction: 1-0 to Tottenham.
BONUS! Most Depressing Christmas Downer – Hull vs. Leicester City (Sun, Dec. 28, 10:00 AM ET)
What’s Christmas without a game that just reeks of the same desperation and melancholy that can be found during the holiday season? This year, that (dis)honor belongs to Hull vs. Leicester.
In all honesty, both these teams are likely going down this year so this proverbial “six-pointer” shouldn’t have much importance in the long run. But despite the relatively small big-picture stakes, this should still be a potentially profitable game for anyone who does put a stake on a stalemate.
Think about it. These are two of the three worst teams in the league. They won’t lack in effort, but they do lack any discernable quality. They’ll huff and they’ll puff until they ultimately cancel each other out and settle for a result as depressing as this whole game itself.
