The Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans were among the worst teams in the NFL last season. Meanwhile, the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons were the biggest underachievers. All four teams will start the new season as underdogs, but all four will also be big sleepers to pull off an upset with their Week 1 matchups.
Let’s take a look at all five of our Week 1 sleeper candidates and find out their chances of springing a surprise right out of the gate. Meanwhile, you can find all 16 of our Week 1 picks and predictions here.
[sc:Football ]2015 NFL Week 1 Sleeper Picks
Baltimore Ravens (+5.5) at Denver Broncos
When: Sunday, Sept, 13, 4:25 PM ET
There are two reasons why the Baltimore Ravens have every chance of hanging with the Denver Broncos at Mile High: their offensive and defensive lines.
[sc:NFL240banner ]The Ravens have one of the best front fives in the NFL, one that should be able to protect Joe Flacco against a dangerous Denver pass rush. They should also allow Justin Forsett to move the ball relatively well on the ground even against a very tough Broncos D. Meanwhile, the Ravens’ front seven can wreak havoc on a Broncos O-line that will have a lot of inexperienced starters this season.
With 39-year-old Peyton Manning not quite in best of shape – he led just two scoring drives, both of them field goals, on 11 preseason possessions – this game could come down to a battle of defenses and running games, which should suit the Ravens just fine.
Writer’s Prediction: The Broncos get the victory, but the Ravens (+5.5) still manage to cover in a 27-24 loss.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) vs. Carolina Panthers
When: Sunday, Sept. 13, 1:00 PM ET
The Jaguars went just 3-5 against the spread at home last season, but the three games they did cover (by winning straight up) were against teams with losing records (the Browns, Giants and Titans). That indicates that they play well against opposition relatively closer to their level.
Well, the “NFC South champion” Panthers, who went 7-8-1 last season, might just be right in their wheelhouse. Carolina isn’t appreciably better from a year ago, and will be without No. 1 wideout Kelvin Benjamin for the year due to a torn ACL.
The Jaguars, on the other hand, should see some much-needed improvement offensively after beefing up their O-line during the offseason. And with a respectable defense that could get even better in Year 3 under Gus Bradley, the Jags should be considered major sleepers as home underdogs.
Writer’s Prediction: The Jaguars (+3.5) straight up beat the Panthers at home, 24-21.
New Orleans Saints (+3) at Arizona Cardinals
When: Sunday, Sept. 13, 4:05 PM ET
The Saints have long been known for being a terrific home team and a very poor road team. However, they totally flipped that script at the back end of last season, as they went 0-5 at the Superdome and 4-0 on the road in their last nine games.
They have a great chance of continuing that trend when they face the Cardinals in Week 1. Arizona was one of the best home teams in the league last year (7-1), but it will be without two starting offensive linemen (Mike Iupati and Bobby Massie) to start the season.
New Orleans may have lost Jimmy Graham over the summer, but Drew Brees still has some capable receiving targets around, as well as a solid ground game led by Mark Ingram, who broke out for 964 rushing yards and nine touchdowns last season.
Writer’s Prediction: The Saints (+3) shock the Cards by beating them in Arizona, 28-24.
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Tennessee Titans (+3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
When: Sunday, Sept. 13, 4:25 PM ET
It may be simplistic to reduce a game down to determining which quarterback is better, but with a matchup as even as the Titans vs. Bucs, it could be the decisive factor.
Obviously, the two rookie quarterbacks – Tampa Bay’s No. 1 pick Jameis Winston and Tennessee’s No. 2 Marcus Mariota – are the headliners, and they should have a huge influence in the outcome of the game. More specifically, their ability (or lack thereof) to take care of the ball will be crucial.
In that respect, Mariota has the edge over Winston. He threw just 14 interceptions in three years at Oregon, four less than what Winston gave up just last season. Winston’s penchant for handing the ball over to the opponent could be the turning point in the Titans taking one on the road.
Writer’s Prediction: Mariota and the Titans (+3) beat Winston’s Bucs, 24-21.
Altanta Falcons (+3) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
When: Monday, Sept. 14, 7:10 PM ET
Everyone seems ready to jump on the Eagles bandwagon after their very eventful offseason. But while it’s possible all of Chip Kelly’s moves have actually made them worthy of being +800 Super Bowl contenders, there should be at least some skepticism as to whether they can come together right out of the gate.
Their first assignment of the season at Atlanta isn’t as easy as it looks. While the Falcons are only 8-12 in their last 20 games at home, they have one of the most explosive offenses in the league led by Matt Ryan and Julio Jones.
Their defense should also take a slight step up from being the absolute worst in the league with Dan Quinn now in charge. Don’t sleep on these Falcons pulling off an upset as home dogs against Philly.
Writer’s Prediction: The Eagles fall to the Falcons (+3), 31-28, in Philly.
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