TGIF: Thank God it’s Football! After four interminable weeks of preseason, the real NFL action finally begins this week. It all starts on Thursday, when the newly un-suspended Tom Brady leads the defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots against the suspension-hit Pittsburgh Steelers, and concludes with a Monday Night doubleheader.
Let’s get this new season started with our spread picks and predictions for all 16 games on the slate. Also, don’t forget to check out our Week 1 Power Rankings here and five potential Week 1 sleeper picks here.
[sc:Football ]2015 NFL Week 1 Picks
Thursday, September 10
Pittsburgh Steelers (+7) at New England Patriots (8:30 PM ET)
[sc:NFL240banner ]Tom Brady’s back and ready to play after his four-game suspension was overturned, which is obviously a huge boost for the Pats. Meanwhile, the Steelers will have to contend with their key suspensions – star running back Le’Veon Bell and No. 2 receiver Martavis Bryant – not to mention the absence of center Maurkice Pouncey.
Foxboro will be rocking with Brady in the lineup, so the smart play is to go with the Super Bowl champs by over a touchdown at home. New England is 18-2 (13-7 against the spread) in its last 20 home games.
Writer’s Prediction: The Patriots (-7) cover easily with a 35-21 win.
Sunday, September 13
Green Bay Packers (-6.5) at Chicago Bears (1:00 PM ET)
No Jordy Nelson against Chicago? That should be no problem for the Packers, especially with Aaron Rodgers around. The reigning NFL MVP still has weapons in Randall Cobb, Davante Adams and Eddie Lacy to work with. Rodgers has torched the Bears for 300 yards and three touchdowns per game in his last three visits to Soldier Field.
Moreover, the Packers are 9-1 (8-2) against the spread in their last 10 meetings against Chicago.
Writer’s Prediction: The Packers (-6.5) cover with a comfortable 38-20 road win.
Kansas City Chiefs (+1) at Houston Texans (1:00 PM ET)
The Texans have a terrific defense (No. 6 in defensive DVOA last season) but their offense leaves much to be desired. Brian Hoyer is a mediocre quarterback, and he won’t have the luxury of having Arian Foster to ease the pressure with a solid running game.
The Chiefs’ Alex Smith isn’t all that explosive, but with playmakers like Jamaal Charles, Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce, KC has enough weapons on offense to get the job done on the road.
Writer’s Prediction: The Chiefs (+1) win a close one on the road, 20-17.
Cleveland Browns (+3) at New York Jets (1:00 PM ET)
The Jets’ Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t going to outduel a lot of quarterbacks in this league, but Cleveland’s Josh McCown is probably on the shortlist of QBs he can get the better of. And if that’s not enough to take the Jets at home, the fact that they also have a superior defense and running game than the Browns should be.
Writer’s Prediction: The Jets (-3) edge out the Browns, 23-17.
Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Buffalo Bills (1:00 PM ET)
The Bills have a truly dominant defense (No. 2 in defensive DVOA last season) but the offense is one gigantic question mark. Tyrod Taylor is an unknown quantity at quarterback; the offensive line could be anywhere from mediocre to terrible; and LeSean McCoy might not be close to 100 percent after battling a hamstring problem for most of preseason.
The Colts’ own O-line doesn’t inspire much confidence, but Andrew Luck should have enough weapons on offense to cover at Buffalo.
Writer’s Prediction: The Colts (-3) win and cover on the road, 21-13.
Miami Dolphins (-4) at Washington Redskins (1:00 PM ET)
After seeing how the Redskins’ O-line disintegrated in the preseason in front of Robert Griffin III, it’s scary to think what a Dolphins front featuring Ndamukong Suh, Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon can do. Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins is already prone to turnovers, and some added pressure could see the Fins come away with a few picks.
Writer’s Prediction: The Dolphins (-4) destroy the Redskins, 35-17.
Carolina Panthers (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1:00 PM ET)
With a Panthers offense that will be without No. 1 Kelvin Benjamin, it’s tough to see them pulling away from the Jaguars in Jacksonville. The Jags had a pretty competent defense last season, and could be even better this year. The same goes for Blake Bortles and his offensive line, which should help the Jags put points on the board against the Panthers.
Writer’s Prediction: The Jaguars (+3.5) beat the Panthers at home, 24-21.
Seattle Seahawks (-4) at St. Louis Rams (1:00 PM ET)
Nick Foles better fear for his safety as his questionable O-line goes against the Seahawks’ ferocious front seven. Meanwhile, the Seahawks’ offense should have an added dimension with the additions of Jimmy Graham, Tyler Lockett and Fred Jackson in the passing game. Seattle is 17-3 (13-7 against the spread) in its last 20 meetings against the Rams.
Writer’s Prediction: The Seahawks (-4) beat by the Rams, 30-20.
New Orleans Saints (+3) at Arizona Cardinals (4:05 PM ET)
Not only will the Cardinals be without top guard Mike Iupati, they’ll also be without starting right tackle Bobby Massie after he got popped with a suspension. Arizona relies on solid pass protection to make big plays downfield, something it could struggle to provide Carson Palmer with a diminished O-line. As a result, the Cards could also struggle keeping up with the Saints’ explosive attack.
Writer’s Prediction: The Saints (+3) beat the Cards on the road, 28-24.
Detroit Lions (+3) at San Diego Chargers (4:05 PM ET)
A big piece of Detroit’s No. 1-ranked run defense per DVOA (Ndamukong Suh) is gone, leaving a significant hole in the heart of that D-line. Meanwhile, San Diego should have a much improved running game thanks to the addition of Melvin Gordon and improvements in the O-line. That revamped line should also give Philip Rivers a clean pocket to pick a questionable Lions secondary apart.
Writer’s Prediction: The Chargers (-3) cover at home with a 31-17 win.
Tennessee Titans (+3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4:25 PM ET)
Tennesse and Tampa Bay are two similar, evenly matched teams. Both went 2-14 last season, and both will now be starting rookie quarterbacks. However, a significant difference is that the Bucs’ Jameis Winston is susceptible to making questionable decisions that could lead to turnovers.
The Titans’ Marcus Mariota is the exact opposite, as he’s someone who takes very good care of the ball. The very real threat of a game-altering Winston turnover tips the scales in the Titans’ favor on the road.
Writer’s Prediction: The Titans (+3) beat the Bucs, 24-21.
Cincinnati Bengals (-3) at Oakland Raiders (4:25 PM ET)
The Raiders were actually a decent run defense last season (No. 14 via DVOA), but after seeing Jeremy Hill explode for over 140 rushing yards four times in a span of nine weeks, it’s fair to say the Bengals still have the significant edge in that battle.
AJ Green, who was banged up for most of last season, should be back to 100 percent to give the Bengals another big offensive weapon against a suspect Raiders secondary.
Writer’s Prediction: The Bengals (-3) rough up the Raiders, 28-14.
Baltimore Ravens (+5.5) at Denver Broncos (4:25 PM ET)
The Ravens are a team built to keep it close against the Broncos in Denver. With the help of a very good O-line, Baltimore can protect Joe Flacco from the Broncos pass rush and can run the ball very effectively to eat up clock. Meanwhile, its equally impressive front seven can bully the Broncos’ rebuilt O-line and slow down the Broncos’ running attack.
Writer’s Prediction: The Broncos win, but the Ravens (+5.5) cover in a 27-24 loss.
New York Giants (+5.5) at Dallas Cowboys (8:30 PM ET)
It remains to be seen whether the Cowboys running game can remain dominant even without DeMarco Murray, but the passing game should still have the Giants secondary’s number. Tony Romo threw seven touchdowns in two meetings against New York last season, while Dez Bryant caught 16 balls for 237 yards and two touchdowns.
The Cowboys are 5-1 (4-2 against the spread) in their last six meetings against the Giants.
Writer’s Prediction: The Cowboys (-5.5) cover at home with a 31-21 win.
Monday, September 14
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Atlanta Falcons (7:10 PM ET)
There’s a lot of hype surrounding the Eagles this season but it remains to be seen whether Chip Kelly’s overhauled team will be able to click immediately.
With that in mind, the Falcons shouldn’t be underestimated at home in Week 1. Atlanta has one of the most prolific passing games in the league (No. 8 in DVOA last season), which just so happened to be the Eagles defense’s weakness last season (they ranked 18th in DVOA against the pass).
Writer’s Prediction: The Falcons (+3) win at home, 31-28.
Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at San Francisco 49ers (10:20 PM ET)
While the Niners are on their way down after years of challenging in the NFC, the Vikings are on their way up. San Francisco lost so much talent along its defense, which should make things easier for a Vikings rushing attack that was No. 4 in DVOA last season even without star running back Adrian Peterson, who will make his long-awaited return.
Writer’s Prediction: The Vikings (-2.5) are victorious on the road, 21-13.
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