Is the Pac-12 wide open this year or what? Eight teams went .500 or better in conference play, and half of them have a legit shot of taking the tournament title. Defending champion Arizona will have its hands full against fellow favorites Oregon, Utah and Cal. But will one of the conference’s more unheralded teams crash the Pac-12 party and book a ticket to the Big Dance?
Get a complete primer of the Pac-12 conference tournament below. Meanwhile, don’t miss our previews for the other major conferences: ACC, Big Ten and SEC.
With a 12-6 conference record this season, Arizona fell below the top three seeds in the Pac-12 for the first time since 2012. However, the Wildcats were still able to make it all the way to the final of the conference tournament that year, only to lose to Colorado.
That’s pretty much been the story of Arizona in the conference tourney with Sean Miller. The Wildcats have gone to the tournament final four times in their first six years under Miller, but are just 1-3 in those title games.
Despite those past failures and a No. 4 seed in the tourney, the defending champs are still the slight favorite at +225 to win it all. But this has hardly been as dominant as past Arizona teams, and with a deep field in the Pac-12 this season, the Wildcats could struggle to win the three games they need to go back-to-back.
Oregon Ducks
Oregon’s Dana Altman had his best coaching season yet at Eugene. He led the Ducks to a 14-4 conference record this year as they won their first regular season title since 2002. Altman has also had a fair bit of success in the tournament in recent years. He led the Ducks to the tournament title in 2013, and to the final last season.
Oregon has been known primarily for its very efficient offenses under Altman, and this year has been no different. The Ducks are No. 11 per KenPom in offensive efficiency. However, their defense has improved a great deal from last season, jumping from 121st to 57th.
The Ducks will enter the tournament on a very impressive five-game win streak where they’ve won by an average of 10 points per game. With momentum heavily on their side, the Ducks’ odds of +300 have a decent chance of paying off.
Utah Utes
Speaking of momentum, few teams in the country will have more of it than Utah. The Utes went 12-2 in their last 14 games – 13-5 overall in conference play – and will enter the tourney on a six-game win streak that includes a big win over Arizona.
Sophomore center Jakob Poeltl has successfully taken the leap toward stardom. He’s averaged 19 points and nine rebounds over the last 14 games, and has the potential to carry his team all the way to the title.
Utah’s terrific run has shrunk its odds of winning its first ever Pac-12 title (in just five seasons as part of the conference) to +300. However, the No. 2 seed Utes will be wary of a final meeting with top-seed Oregon, who won both games against Utah this season by double-digits.
California Golden Bears
Not to be outdone, the Cal Bears finished conference play by going 10-3 in their last 13 games, with their only losses coming against three very tough teams – Utah, Colorado and Arizona – on the road. More importantly, Cal went 7-1 since getting senior point guard Tyrone Wallace back from injury.
Cal’s top five, with Wallace, freshmen Jaylen Brown (15 PPG, 5.6 RPG) and Ivan Rabb (12 PPG, 8.4 RPG), and juniors Jordan Mathews and Jabari Bird, is as good as any in the country. The Bears definitely have the ability to claim their first-ever Pac-12 tournament title this year, and their +400 odds reflect that fact.
Sleeper
Colorado Buffaloes
Despite going just 4-5 over their last nine conference games, the Colorado Buffaloes seem to have done enough to earn an at-large bid for the Big Dance. But don’t think they’ll suddenly take it easy in the Pac-12 tournament, where they’re sneaky +1,500 sleepers to win it all.
The Buffaloes will struggle to put points on the board, but their defense and rebounding (No. 1 in the conference) will make them a very tough out, even against the top teams in the tournament. They won three out of seven meetings against the top four seeds in the conference. Their two losses against No. 2 seed Utah were both by just two points.
Long Shot
Oregon State Beavers
The Oregon State Beavers are still very much in the tournament bubble. They needed to go 3-1 in their last four games in order to go 9-9, the first time they’ve finished at .500 in conference play since the ‘80s.
Gary Payton II has done everything in his power to get the Beavers back to the big time. The senior guard leads the team in points (15.9 PPG), rebounds (7.6 RPG), assists (5.3), and steals (2.4) this season.
Unsurprisingly, Oregon State is a +3,300 long shot to win the tourney. But you’d be a fool to discount The Glove Jr. and his Beavers, who own home wins over Cal and Utah – the top two seeds in their side of the bracket – as well as top seed Oregon.
Writer’s Prediction
Poeltl powers Utah past Oregon as the Utes claim their first Pac-12 tournament title.
