Every year there are rookies that look like promising players but few players jumped on the scene like Watson. Not only was the team winning but he was the reason why. Since his injury they have gone back to Tom Savage. Savage is serviceable but the Texans are just 1-3 in his starts this season and that is not a coincidence. I think the skill talent of the Texans is actually pretty good, such that Savage should be able to generate more offense. In those four starts only once has the team scored more than 14 points, last week.
It would help if the running game was more solid. That is another area where Watson helped. His ability to tuck and run added a dimension which Savage will never have. If the Texans can’t top 14 points in this one it is going to be very hard to stay in this one throughout.
A healthy Texans defense can be among the best but if you take away JJ Watt and Whitney Mercilus there is not a lot left to fear. Jadeveon Clowney is the lone remaining threat and he has been doing his best to put heat on opponents with sacks in each of the last four games. Perhaps he could get to a shaky Joe Flacco. The Texans secondary has been getting taken advantage of all season long. They need the pass rush support to have a shot.
This is not a great Ravens team but with six games to go they are in a decent spot. Looking at their schedule they are likely favoured in all but one of those games (@ Pittsburgh) Joe Flacco has missed some time but he has also just been bad.
Baltimore has the worst passing offense in the league in terms of yards per game. Its not like the are monsters rushing the ball either. I think this group undervalues talent. When was the last time they had a back or receiver that really scared anyone. Their top three receivers are all players that essentially nobody else wanted.
It is hard to win that way. I do not consider the Ravens an elite defense but they have pitched three shutouts this season so I might have to adjust my thinking. They are third in points allowed. Look for them to be ultra aggressive in this game, and try to force Alex Smith into some tough throws, and get him rattled so he will turn the ball over.
Writer’s Prediction:
Baltimore is not a great bet to score a lot but their defense probably controls this one. I think it is quite possible this is another spot where the Baltimore defense could throw a shutout. Either way they will be good enough to cover and an obvious choice for every teaser imaginable. I am curious how long this number stay at 7. Pick: Baltimore (-7)
