The Miami Dolphins’ playoff hopes are shrouded in some doubt as a heartbreaking loss to the Denver Broncos dropped them to 6-5, one game back in the crowded AFC wild-card hunt. The Fins have a far easier foe this week though, as they take on AFC East rivals, the New York Jets, who have seemingly pushed the eject button on their season.
For a comprehensive look at all of the week’s games, check out our Complete Week 13 Picks and Predictions piece after reading up on this AFC East Monday night showdown.
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Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets Betting Preview and Prediction
Where: MetLife Stadium, New Jersey
When: Monday, December 1, 8:30 PM ET
Line: Miami Dolphins (-6.5) at New York Jets (+6.5); total 41.5 – see all NFL lines
Betting on the Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins gave Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos all they could handle at Mile High as they entered the fourth quarter with an 11-point lead. Unfortunately, their defense – which has been playing incredibly well this season – wasn’t good enough to stop Manning, who led the Broncos to 22 unanswered points en route to a 39-36 win.
[sc:NFL240banner ]The Broncos game is another example of what is becoming a worrying trend for the Fins, who keep coming short in the final moments in close games. The Dolphins were also leading late against the Packers and Lions, but squandered those wins away by allowing very late touchdowns.
But if the Dolphins play to their potential, they shouldn’t have to worry about any sort of down-to-the-wire, late-in-game problems against the struggling Jets.
Ryan Tannehill and the Miami offense certainly lived up to their potential in Denver, blitzing the Broncos for 212 yards of total offense and 21 points in the first half alone. The Dolphins delivered in the red zone, scoring five touchdowns in all five trips after entering the game just 30th in red zone efficiency.
They’ll be looking to recreate that perfect performance against a Jets defense that is 30th in red zone defense, surrendering 2.2 scores per game. New York also allowed the Bills to go 3-of-3 on Monday night on their red zone trips.
Its inability to close out games aside, the Dolphins defense has been phenomenal this season, and has been rated as a top-three unit according to DVOA (through Week 11). Miami will be favored to limit a Jets offense that could only produce three points and 218 total yards of offense against the Bills’ similarly imposing defense.
Betting on the New York Jets
Simply put, the New York Jets were outclassed on both sides of the ball by the Buffalo Bills, who ran out easy 38-3 winners in Detroit on Monday.
The Jets defense, which has remained respectable while other parts of the team have not, was torn to shreds by a Bills offense that had not scored a touchdown in seven consecutive quarters. A massive part of that collapse was the loss of the Jets’ best player, defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson, to a toe injury in the second quarter.
Meanwhile, the offense went away from the one thing it did well (running the football) in favor of calling for Michael Vick to pass, which went disastrously. While the running game still piled up a respectable 92 yards on 19 carries (4.8 yards per carry), Vick went just 7-of-19 for 76 yards and a pick before getting benched for Geno Smith.
Smith played well in relief of Vick, going 8-of-10 for 89 yards and could be in line for a return to the starting lineup against a depleted Dolphins secondary. But unless they go down big early (which isn’t entirely out of the question), it’s hard to imagine the Jets putting the game back in the hands of either of their quarterbacks again.
If they indeed return to their running game, which is averaging 141 yards per game this season (3rd in the NFL), they may find the success the Broncos had when they gashed the Dolphins for 201 yards on the ground with third-stringer CJ Anderson leading the attack.
However, the status of Wilkerson and whether he can be able to play will be huge. Not only is Wilkerson outstanding against the run, he’s also the team’s leader with 4.5 sacks. Without his ability to put pressure on the quarterback, the Jets’ tattered secondary could be exposed even further.
Writer’s Prediction
The Dolphins pile on the Jets as they win and cover on the road. Create a betting account now and get in the thick of the race for the NFL postseason.
