Julio Jones and the NFC South-leading Atlanta Falcons gave the Green Bay Packers more than they bargained for, especially in the second half of their very high-scoring Monday night matchup, but came up just short in the end.
The Falcons will hope to bounce back at home as they host the dangerous Pittsburgh Steelers, who are coming off a big blowout win over their division rivals the Cincinnati Bengals and are eager to cement their position in the AFC playoffs. The Falcons still lead their atrocious division, so there is a great deal on the line in this one.
Speaking of the Bengals, they’re in action on Sunday against the Johnny Manziel-led Cleveland Browns. Find our comprehensive preview of that game here, and read on below for more on the Steelers vs. Falcons.
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview and Prediction
Don’t look now but the Pittsburgh Steelers are back to reprising their role as one of the most erratic and unpredictable teams in the league. They alternated between wins and losses in their first seven weeks of the year before going on a three-game run in Weeks 7-9, thanks in large part to Ben Roethlisberger throwing touchdowns for fun.
[sc:NFL240banner ]Over the last month, the Steelers’ record again reads loss-win-loss-win. They didn’t look at all impressive in their last three games, with losses to the struggling Jets and Saints, and a thoroughly unconvincing three-point win over the Titans sandwiched in between. But Big Ben and co. were back to their best with an impressive 42-21 win against the Bengals on Sunday, with 25 points coming a big fourth quarter.
Roethlisberger tore the Bengals’ pass defense apart with 350 passing yards and three touchdowns, while Le’Veon Bell had 185 yards and two touchdowns on the ground to go along with another 50 yards through the air and a receiving score.
Bell is finishing the year incredibly strong. He’s averaging an absurd 237 yards from scrimmage in his last three games with five total touchdowns. That doesn’t bode well for the Falcons’ awful defense, which, apart from being 31st against the run per DVOA through Week 13, is also 28th against defending running backs in the passing game.
And don’t forget about the Steelers’ explosive passing offense (ranked fifth in passing DVOA), which has Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown (who was supplanted as the NFL’s leader in receiving yards by the Falcons’ Julio Jones) and rookie Martavis Bryant (seven touchdowns in seven career games).
Bryant, who’s had three of the Steelers’ 12 pass plays of 40-plus yards, will be a particular big-play threat against a flimsy Falcons defense which has given up 12 40-plus-yard pass plays.
Give the Atlanta Falcons, 5-8 leaders of the worst division in the league, a lot of credit. Most teams would’ve just packed it in after getting plastered 31-7 in the first half at Lambeau against the Packers, as Atlanta did on Monday night. Instead, the Falcons fought until the end, outscoring Green Bay 30-12 in the second half to come away with a more respectable 43-37 loss.
Good things often happen when the Falcons score points. They’re 4-1 against the spread this season when they score at least 27 points in a game. They’ve done so in their last two games against the Cardinals and Packers (covering both times), and they’re more than capable of putting a few more points on the board with the way their quarterback-receiver combo of Matt Ryan and Julio Jones has been lighting teams up.
Ryan has thrown for over 700 total yards with six total touchdowns, while Jones has 448 total receiving yards in the past two games, including a career-high 259 yards against the Packers. They will now face off against a sieve-like Steeler pass defense (29th in pass defense DVOA through Week 13) fresh off handing Bengals receiver AJ Green his new career-high of 224 receiving yards.
However, the biggest problem for the Falcons could be the lack of a fallback option on offense if Julio Jones can’t come close to 200 yards receiving. Jones is already banged up with a hip injury, but head coach Mike Smith is optimistic he’ll play. Secondary receiver Roddy White has also been hobbled by an ankle injury and caught just three passes for 42 yards against the Packers, while the running game has been inconsistent all season.
The Falcons will need all the points they can get, especially if their faulty defense fails to handle the Steelers’ many offensive weapons.
Writer’s Prediction
Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh offense overwhelms Atlanta as the Steelers win and cover on the road.
