It’s probably time to start taking the Atlanta Falcons seriously. The Falcons are now 4-1, and 4-0 (SU and ATS) since losing in Week 1 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Their last two wins have been especially impressive, as they came against last year’s two Super Bowl participants: the Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos.
Yes, the Falcons had the good luck of facing rookie Paxton Lynch, who was making his first career start last Sunday, but it was nevertheless another impressive performance on the road. Atlanta is now 3-0 SU and ATS away from home this season.
The two-headed monster of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman is quickly becoming one of the most fearsome backfield combinations in the entire NFL. After Freeman established himself as a terrific dual-threat back last year, Coleman is doing the same this year with his improved pass-catching. He torched the Broncos for 132 receiving yards (on just four catches) and a touchdown.
Those two have been so good that Atlanta has been able to win comfortably even with star wideout Julio Jones catching just three passes in the last two road games. And of course, Jones can still explode for 12 catches and 300 yards like he did against Carolina.
Jones could have another quiet game in Seattle as he goes up against the Legion of Boom, but the Falcons have the weapons in Freeman and Coleman to stretch the vaunted Seattle defense to its limits. Receiving backs are actually one of the Seahawks D’s few weaknesses. Heading into Week 5, they ranked just 26th in the NFL against pass-catching running backs per DVOA.
After a rough first couple weeks, it turns out that the Seahawks are just fine. Not even a Russell Wilson ankle sprain and the usual offensive line woes have been able stop the Seahawks, as they’ve won their last two games – at home to the 49ers (37-18) and at the Jets (27-17) – by double-digits, comfortably covering the respective spreads.
Their defense remains one of, if not the best in the business. They’ve yet to allow over 18 points to any opponent this season. Granted, the quarterbacks they’ve faced thus far have been Ryan Tannehill, Case Keenum, Blaine Gabbert and Ryan Fitzpatrick, but the Seahawks D’s years-long body of work speaks for itself.
As good as Atlanta has looked this season, its defense – against the pass, in particular – is still a bit of a question mark. The Falcons ranked 30th in the NFL in pass defense per DVOA heading into Week 5.
Wilson looked like the unstoppable force that he was in the second half of last season against the Jets (72 percent completion, 309 yards, 3 TDs). That was with a gimpy ankle and sprained knee, which should both be a bit better after their bye.
He was pressured on just 14 of 35 dropbacks, and had the time to pick New York apart downfield. If his O-line can give Wilson that type of protection against a still-unproven Falcons pass rush, Atlanta will be in a lot of trouble.
Wilson is finally developing a strong connection with Jimmy Graham, who has recorded back-to-back 100-yard receiving games for the first time as a Seahawk. Look for the tight end to continue his fine run against Atlanta. The Falcons, who were without two of their starting linebackers against the Broncos due to injury, have had a hard time covering tight ends this year. They were ranked 23rd per DVOA heading into Week 5.
It’s been a while since they last met (2013 to be exact), but the Seahawks have gone 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with Atlanta.
Writer’s Prediction
This Falcons offense is for real, and it gives Seattle’s defense all it can handle. The Seahawks have enough to squeeze out a 35-32 home win, but the Falcons (+6.5)manage to cover.
