The theme for the final regular season edition of the NFL betting power rankings is: watch the favorite. A trio of home teams with significant homefield advantage take on opponents with essentially nothing to play for. And rounding off this week’s list, a couple of road favorites face teams with iffy quarterback situations.
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NFL Betting Power Rankings for Week 17
*All odds and trends as of December 26, 2013
TEAMS
TRENDS
New Orleans Saints
7-0 SU (6-0-1) ATS at home
Seattle Seahawks
8-0 SU (6-2 ATS) in last 8 home games vs STL
San Diego Chargers
8-2 SU (7-3 ATS) in last 10 home games vs KC
Philadelphia Eagles
6-1 SU (5-1-1 ATS) in last 7 games
San Francisco 49ers
6-1 ATS in last 7 games vs AZ
1. New Orleans Saints (-13)
Next Game: vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4:25 PM ET)
A horrendous 1-3 SU run in December has seen the New Orleans Saints cede the NFC South to the Carolina Panthers, but those three defeats came on the road. The Saints are a completely different animal at home, where they’re a perfect 7-0 SU and an undefeated 6-0-1 ATS this season with a 17.4-point average margin of victory, 2nd in the NFL.
In what could be their final game of the season at the Superdome, they face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, losers of 3 of their last 4 games and one of the worst road teams in the NFL. The Bucs are just 1-6 SU (2-5 ATS) in 7 roads games this season. [sc:NFL240banner ]
2. Seattle Seahawks (-10.5)
Next Game: vs St. Louis Rams (4:25 PM ET)
Seattle dropped its very first home game in over two years last week, but don’t expect lighting to strike twice, especially since the Seahawks face the St. Louis Rams this week.
The Rams haven’t been a great road team in recent years (they’re just 6-18-1 SU in their last 25 road games) but they’re particularly dreadful in the Pacific Northwest. The Seahawks are15-2 SU over St. Louis in Seattle in the past 17 games, and an impressive 8-0 SU (6-2 ATS) in their last 8 meetings in Seattle.
3. San Diego Chargers (-9.5)
Next Game: vs Kansas City Chiefs (4:25 PM ET)
The only playoff-bound NFL team that has absolutely nothing to play for this week is the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs – locked in as the 5-seed in the AFC – showed against the Colts last week what a team lacking motivation looks like, and it could get worse this week if they rest their starters as expected.
The Chargers, meanwhile, are still fighting for their faint playoff lives. They must win and hope both the Dolphins and Ravens lose in order to sneak into the second Wild Card spot. San Diego is 8-2 SU (7-3 ATS), including a five-game winning streak against the Chiefs at Qualcomm, a record that could improve if faced with Kansas City’s reserves.
4. Philadelphia Eagles (-7)
Next Game: at Dallas Cowboys (8:30 PM ET)
Tony Romo’s chances of playing in this decisive game don’t look good, strengthening the Eagles’ chances of winning. But even with their starting quarterback, Dallas has gone just 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games.
His likely replacement, Kyle Orton, will have an uphill task improving upon the Cowboys’ 33% covering rate at home (6-12 ATS in last 18 games) against Philadelphia, especially since the Eagles are one of the hottest teams in the NFL over the last two months at 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS.
5. San Francisco 49ers (-1.5)
Next Game: at Arizona Cardinals (4:25 PM ET)
The Arizona Cardinals delivered a big upset last week, but Carson Palmer’s 4 INTs against the elite Seahawks defense were definitely worrisome. It won’t get any easier when he faces another top-10 defense in the San Francisco 49ers, who have enjoyed 1) covering on the road, 2) covering against the Cardinals and 3) covering against the Cardinals on the road.
After their Week 2 loss to the Seahawks, the Niners have gone an undefeated 5-0-1 ATS in six road games. They are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against the Cardinals, but an even better 6-1 ATS in the last 7 games in Arizona.
