Florida State Seminoles vs. Miami Hurricanes Preview
Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
When: Saturday, October 8, 8:00 PM ET
Line: Florida State Seminoles (+3) at Miami Hurricanes (-3); total: 70.0 – view all NCAA Football odds and lines
TV Broadcast: ABC, Watch ESPN
Writer’s Pick: Miami Hurricanes
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Betting on the Florida State Seminoles (+3)
Welp… now’s a good time to make more of those hilarious Mia Khalifa crying Jordan memes, as the No. 23 Florida State Seminoles (2-2) may have just lost its bid for the national title this season with a deflating 37-35 defeat to North Carolina last Saturday. Florida State lost to the Tar Heels by way of a 54-yard field goal as time expired, snapping the team’s 22-game home winning streak.
It was another long day for FSU’s defense, which is now giving up nearly seven yards per play to the opposition. That D has also allowed a whopping 35.4 points per game, constantly being burnt by their opponents’ big plays. The team has allowed 20 plays of 30 yards or more on defense, which is the second-most in the nation.
To add insult to injury, kicker Ricky Aguayo (yes, the younger brother of now-notorious Roberto Aguayo) missed all three of his field goals against the Tar Heels. That was after Aguayo made a school-record six field goals in Week 1 against Ole Miss and having missed just one attempt all season.
For all of the defense’s and special team’s struggles, at least the ‘Noles can still count on their star player, running back Dalvin Cook, to deliver the goods on offense against their long-time rivals in the Keys. Cook just had his second-straight game of over 100 yards rushing by gashing UNC for 140 yards and three touchdowns on Saturday. Against Miami, however, the fringe Heisman Trophy candidate (at a price of +2,500) is an even bigger beast. Cook torched the Hurricanes for 222 yards and three TDs in last season’s Floridian clash.
Perhaps Miami will ultimately prove to be the cure for FSU’s woes. The team has won six-straight contests against the ‘Canes (3-3 ATS), but that streak could very well end like their dominance at home if the Seminoles don’t make the right adjustments for their current weak spots, and there are quite a lot of them.
Betting on the Miami Hurricanes (-3)
Once again, the No. 10 Miami Hurricanes (4-0) quietly proved to the rest of the country that they are a team to be reckoned with this season by beating the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets last Saturday, 35-21. And unlike the Seminoles, the Hurricanes have an imposing defense to support their offense. They recovered two Georgia Tech fumbles that were returned for touchdowns, all the while not committing any turnovers of their own.
Miami’s defense has been its biggest story of the season thus far. That stop unit ranks second in the nation at just 11.0 points allowed per game by coming up with a bunch of timely loss-of-yardage plays. Only 11 teams in Division I have more sacks than the Hurricanes’ 17, and their average of 12 tackles for loss per contest are tops in all of FBS. What’s more peculiar about this D is that no particular player stands out above the rest of his teammates, with 10 different players having gotten at least one sack for the season at that.
That balance on defense is also evident in Miami’s efficiently-run offense. Quarterback Brad Kaaya is not breaking any boundaries in his junior year, but he’s still been as reliable under center with 935 passing yards and eight TDs to just three picks, as well as netting nearly 10 yards per completion. The team’s running game even has a one-two punch working to perfection: Joe Yearby and Mark Walton have combined for five 100-yard rushing games this season, with each of them having a touchdown in each game this 2016 – the only running back tandem in the country this season to accomplish that feat.
That being said, Miami’s offense is averaging about 200 yards both passing and rushing per game alike, which translates to a dazzling 8.18 yards gained per play (second in FBS). Considering that the Canes have won six of their last seven home games as well (4-3 ATS), there’s hardly a good reason to doubt that they won’t finally end their enduring misery against Florida State this Saturday.
The Hurricanes (-3) blow away the Seminoles, 36-21.
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